NFL Week 12 Predictions: Super Bowl Rematch, Super Matchup Spoiled

Most of the country will be watching the next two games, both of which I have plenty to say about.

Steelers at Seahawks

This is only the second time in 20 years the Steelers will play in Seattle, so it’s a rare matchup. Over the last three meetings, the Steelers have all but silenced the Seahawks. There was the 21-10 win in Super Bowl XL where despite all the bitching and moaning, the Seahawks were clearly outplayed and allowed three of the biggest plays in Super Bowl history. The last two meetings have taken place at Heinz Field at 1:00 p.m. and the Steelers won 21-0 in 2007 and 24-0 in 2011. That 24-0 win is significant because it marks the last time Seattle was unable to stay at least within 8 points of its opponent in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks trailed 17-0 at halftime, 24-0 late in the third quarter and there was no score by either team in the fourth quarter. No one else has thoroughly beaten the Seahawks since that point, a streak that spans an NFL-record 80 games:

SEA80

Arizona opened up a 19-0 lead a few weeks ago, and I would imagine the Steelers studied that film to prepare for this matchup. Antonio Brown can get his against any defense, but I think Richard Sherman will have a good day. Martavis Bryant is the weapon that Ben Roethlisberger needs to utilize best against Seattle’s lesser corners, and Heath Miller needs to have one of his big days as the tight ends have been killing this defense down the seam all year. You can’t abandon the run against the Seahawks, and I don’t think Pittsburgh will, but this is a game where Roethlisberger has to play big just like Carson Palmer did a few weeks ago. The Seattle defense is not as good as it was in 2012-14, but it’s still a talented group that can take over this game if the offensive line struggles to protect Roethlisberger.

Defensively, the Steelers continue to exceed expectations, but they still give up plenty of plays and yards. They just have done a better job of getting takeaways and limiting points. This is a pretty unfamiliar opponent and Russell Wilson is coming off of his best game of the season. I like Doug Baldwin in this matchup and Jimmy Graham may even show up for this one too. Marshawn Lynch is out, but that hasn’t meant the running game has slowed down one bit with Thomas Rawls this year. Seattle’s offense has underachieved for most of the year, but I feel like this game can be more high scoring than expected. I shudder at the thought of predicting the Steelers to score much on the road, but they also tend to play up to the competition. Despite the 5-5 record, at Seattle is still a marquee matchup. You could argue the Seahawks have looked better in their five losses than their five wins this year, especially factoring in the competition. The team that pressures the quarterback better should get this win, and I still think the home team is capable of doing that here.

Final score: Seahawks 27, Steelers 23

Patriots at Broncos

A few weeks ago this looked to have the potential of the most hyped regular-season game in NFL history. The Patriots were rolling. The Broncos had just embarrassed the Packers — not as impressive now as it looked then — and a battle of 10-0 teams seemed like a real possibility. Then the Patriots suffered some injuries at the skill positions and have not been as dominant. The Broncos lost two in a row and Peyton Manning accumulated a few more injuries. Now the legendary offensive showdown looks like a low-scoring slog between arguably the league’s two best defenses.

Oddly enough, the Patriots have allowed one fewer point (182) than the Broncos coming into the week, just like the Packers allowed one fewer point than Denver heading into their 6-0 vs. 6-0 matchup on SNF. Carolina actually leads all defense ins Pts/Dr, but Denver is second and the Patriots are fifth. New England is also really stingy at allowing points early in games, allowing many of their points with the game practically out of reach while the Broncos have played in almost nothing but close games all season.

Ultimately, I think the New England defense wins this game by confusing a young quarterback into mistakes, but it sure has the potential to be an ugly 60-minute affair.

I’m not sure where New England’s offense is going to get its yards from. They can try going big with 2 TEs (get Scott Chandler invovled) and pounding LeGarrette Blount, letting Tom Brady use play-action to his advantage. Denver is still pretty strong against the run however.

For the first time since the 2006 season, Brady won’t have his little (white) security blanket since Danny Amendola is out with a knee injury. Julian Edelman is still out. Wes Welker is in St. Louis. Bill Belichick better fire up the cloning device or try to get Cole Beasley from Dallas in the offseason. It’s not like the Patriots can’t find another shifty player to run 5-yard routes, but it’s been interesting to see how they’ve created such a specific role in their offense since 2007 for players who just so happen to look the same. Brady was using Troy Brown in similar ways a long time ago, but this has been one of the more interesting things about the NE offense over the years.

If you’re Denver, I don’t see how you don’t just use Chris Harris and Bradley Roby to defend Brandon LaFell and Chris Harper man to man. Not even Aaron Dobson (IR) is active, so it’s really those guys at WR. I would use a lot of Aqib Talib on Rob Gronkowski, just like the Pats did with Talib against Jimmy Graham in 2013. I would consistently double Gronk with Talib and a LB, or a safety (throw some T.J. Ward memories at him). With Dion Lewis out and no real receiving threat at RB available, this is really a limited offense. I don’t believe Buffalo showed a blueprint for Gronk. I just think they got first dibs on a depleted NE offense, and if this is how things are going to look with Amendola out, then Denver’s defense should have a good night. The only way the Pats should break 20 points is if they get short fields from turnovers. It would really help to have DeMarcus Ware (out) for this matchup as another player who can get quick pressure on Brady, because I don’t think the coverage is going to be too much of an issue. However, Brady should still get sacked a few times behind a revolving OL, and I expect at least one interception. He’s really going to have to keep his patience and remember that punting is okay in this one.

On the other side of the ball, Denver has Brock Osweiler in his second start, which sounds like a bad formula against Bill Belichick, but Gary Kubiak has used his system in the past to elevate lesser QBs (Brian Griese and Jake Plummer) to successful outings and wins against the Patriots. The tight ends got more involved last week, which could be big here since I think Malcolm Butler will press Demaryius Thomas, who does not handle press coverage well. Emmanuel Sanders will hopefully be healthy for this matchup, but the wild card is Osweiler. Despite claims of mobility, he looks like a major sack machine, already taking 8 sacks in not even six quarters. It took him one start to match Peyton Manning’s career high in sacks for a game (5). Only a facemask penalty negated a sixth sack against a Chicago defense that hardly gets sacks this year. He’ll catch a break with Jamie Collins out, but I think NE’s front seven can get good pressure and stall multiple drives with sacks against this battered OL.

It’s a joke that Osweiler won AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his first start. What I saw there was a true game manager performance. He didn’t have turnovers, but he also wasn’t making any plays in terms of escaping pressure or throwing to guys who weren’t first or second reads. He just found the primary receiver, who was open more often than not. And that’s a smart way to coach a young kid in his first start on the road. It just wasn’t that great of an individual performance. His first touchdown pass was a total blown coverage with Thomas getting a ton of YAC to complete the score. Where was that the first 9 weeks in Denver? Just a fluke TD. The Patriots rarely ever beat themselves like that and Belichick will show Osweiler plenty of things he hasn’t seen yet.

But with the career luck of one Peyton Manning, I can see Denver winning a 20-17 game with Osweiler doing very little, prompting the simpletons to “see, Brock beat Brady in the regular season, Peyton couldn’t for Denver. He’s done, this is Brock’s team.” Yep, in the last three years, in games all played in Foxboro, the Patriots went 3-0 against Manning’s Broncos with an average final score of 36 to 24.3. This could be just like Manning’s college career at Tennessee where he went 0-3 vs. Florida in games that had an average final score of 43.3 to 28.7. In 1998, with Manning at Indy and Florida QB Danny Wuerffel also in the NFL, Tennessee did beat Florida with Manning’s successor, Tee Martin. What did Martin do in that game? He went 7-of-20 for 64 yards and I believe had negative rushing yardage (sacks). Tennessee won 20-17 in overtime after Florida missed a 32-yard field goal. But yep, “Tee Martin did what Peyton couldn’t.”

Then with games coming up against SD-OAK, it’s not unexpected to think Osweiler can get on a roll here. Ultimately, I think Denver should aim to get Manning back for Week 16, a MNF home game with the Bengals that could be for a first-round bye. Yeah, tough matchup, but I think you’d want to bring him back at home rather than in Pittsburgh the week before. And if he can’t physically cut it in that type of setting, then maybe you go back to Osweiler for the playoffs, but that would be my target date of bringing back Manning healthy.

I just know that bringing him back at all will be very hard if Denver wins this game, which is the case regardless of how Osweiler plays. That’s the totally wrong way to look at things, but people do it.

And I also know better than to go against the Patriots, so there.

Final score: Patriots 19, Broncos 16

2015 Week 12 Predictions

I thought I was going to have a perfect 3-0 start on Thanksgiving, but the Bears really surprised me. I thought GB was the most sure thing on that slate too. It’s just not their year.

Winners in bold:

  • Rams at Bengals
  • Vikings at Falcons
  • Saints at Texans
  • Bills at Chiefs
  • Giants at Redskins
  • Dolphins at Jets
  • Buccaneers at Colts
  • Chargers at Jaguars
  • Raiders at Titans
  • Cardinals at 49ers
  • Steelers at Seahawks
  • Patriots at Broncos
  • Ravens at Browns

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 4-10
  • Week 11: 9-5
  • Season: 99-61 (.619)

NFL Week 10 Predictions: The Andrew Luck Injury

So much for that IND-HOU Thursday night game in Week 5 being the “last significant game in Matt Hasselbeck’s career.” Andrew Luck is out for 2-6 weeks with a lacerated kidney and abdominal strain. The Colts, now on a bye week, are still favored to win the AFC South anyway, but it’s another big injury to a quarterback in a season filled with them.

A kidney injury does not sound like something you want to take lightly. Keenan Allen is out for the season in San Diego with one, so let’s assume Luck’s return is closer to the 6-game end of that forecast.

From a statistical standpoint, that means Luck won’t be adding his name to the year-4 record here, and he may not catch up to a record pace again until year 14, which would be the 2025 season.

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It was in his 14th season that Peyton Manning had the four neck surgeries and missed the entire year (2011), setting up the Colts to draft Luck in 2012. Drew Brees only played one game as a rookie and was benched for five games in 2003. Otherwise he has been remarkably healthy, only missing one game due to injury (this year in Carolina). Manning will break the all-time yardage record in the ninth game of his 18th season. Brett Favre threw for 71,838 yards by the end of his 20th season.

Luck is in an era where there are more passing yards averaged each year, so he could catch up much sooner than expected, but every injury and game missed is a big deal when you’re talking about competing for records with great quarterbacks who almost never missed any time like Manning, Brees and Favre.

I’m going to have a more formal post (somewhere) about Manning and the passing record this week, but it is impressive when you think about what it takes to get to that number. A QB can throw for 5,000 yards 14 years in a row and still need another big season. Matthew Stafford aside, you have to be a pretty good QB playing at a high level to throw for 5,000 yards. Hell, even Stafford played at his highest level in 2011. How many quarterbacks can extend a prime performance out to 14-15 years? Luck was easily the favorite among all the young players to chase down this record, and even he has been questioned this year if he should be benched for poor play. We know Stafford isn’t going to see enough starts to ever come close to this record.

Yards are rarely a driving force in QB arguments as people tend to focus more on touchdowns, MVPs, WINS, RINGZ, but once you start talking about throwing for 50,000 or more, that has to be done by someone who was pretty damn good for a long time. Jon Kitna threw for 4,000 yards in back-to-back seasons in Detroit, but he never did it well enough that the Lions or any other team would want to keep him as a long-term starter even if he was 10 years younger.

Time will tell what rule changes have done to this game, but I still like to believe this has been a special era of QB play. Greatness is found through consistency, and you have to be durable too.

Week 10 Games

Some random musings

I think you can forget about the Super Bowls the Giants have won over New England, because I don’t see a defense capable of holding the Patriots under 24 points on Sunday. Oddly enough, the only win in the last four meetings for NE was the only high-scoring game and the only game played in New York: the 38-35 final that pushed the Patriots to 16-0 and gave the Giants confidence that they could hang with the best.

I smell an upset of Tennessee over Carolina, yet I’m not ballsy enough to go through with that pick. Obviously this team is much better with Marcus Mariota at QB. And I don’t really want to credit Mike Mularkey yet, but Ken Whisenhunt had to go.

Another year, another Detroit loss to come in Green Bay. This would make it 25 in a row.

25 is a bit of a magic number for the Seattle Seahawks, as in 0-11 in the Russell Wilson era when allowing at least 25 points. Technically, Seattle allowed at least 27 in all 11 of those games, and rarely does a team score 25 or 26. So Arizona really needs to eye 27-28 for a win on Sunday night, but I think the defenses take over, both quarterbacks struggle and we get a low-scoring game that favors the home team. I still believe in Seattle, but it’d be a lot more believable if they played well in this big game.

2015 Week 10 Predictions

Screwed by the Jets again on TNF. Should have seen that one coming, but I would have said the exact same thing about Buffalo if things went the other way. You just can’t trust either team, yet these are supposed to be among the best teams in the AFC not named NE/DEN/CIN. Ugh.

Winners in bold:

  • Dolphins at Eagles
  • Bears at Rams
  • Panthers at Titans
  • Saints at Redskins
  • Jaguars at Ravens
  • Cowboys at Buccaneers
  • Browns at Steelers
  • Lions at Packers
  • Vikings at Raiders
  • Chiefs at Broncos
  • Patriots at Giants
  • Cardinals at Seahawks
  • Texans at Bengals

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Season: 86-46 (.652)

NFL Week 9 Predictions: Records for Peyton Manning and NFC Showdown

A solid schedule this week, so here are some thoughts on the three games I’m most focused on.

Packers at Panthers

Regardless of last week’s interesting matchup in Denver, this was always the more important game since it’s for first place in the NFC. This is probably the toughest two-game stretch for Green Bay in the Aaron Rodgers era. They get back-to-back road games against the top 2 pass defenses. Rodgers’ last six games against top 5 pass defenses have not gone well. As I mentioned last week, Green Bay is 1-9 on the road against playoff teams since 2012. That’s probably 1-10 given the Broncos are now 7-0.

Jonathan Stewart could have a big day against a subpar Green Bay run defense. He’ll have to really, because I don’t see this passing game getting on track this week with Cam Newton and his receivers. Carolina needs to run Newton a lot and be the more physical team. If you punch Green Bay in the mouth early, you’re usually in good shape.

Randall Cobb is starting to show a bit of the “Peerless Price Effect” as he’s not suited to be a star No. 1 WR. Jordy Nelson was, and Cobb is definitely not the same caliber of player. Carolina has to like the matchup with Josh Norman there, so it really is on James Jones to have a big game. I don’t think much of Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery or Richard Rodgers at this point as big producers, and the running game isn’t up to par this season.

So why would I still pick Green Bay? 

I think the Packers walked into Denver as a confident favorite against an unfamiliar opponent and had their weaknesses exposed against a great defense and an offense that’s starting to put things together. I don’t think Carolina, coming off an emotional Monday night win, is as lethal on either side of the ball and the Packers will use Sunday night as a wake-up call. Rodgers will be more decisive with the ball and maybe scramble more. Carolina won’t be able to cover the receivers as well as Denver’s secondary did. I saw open receivers galore on Monday night, but Andrew Luck made some really horrible throws and decisions. Remember, this is a Carolina defense that let Luke McCown complete 31-of-38 passes with three drops. It’s a shitty reason to pick a team, but I just can’t fathom Rodgers playing so ineffectively two weeks in a row. He’ll get more out of the offense and the defense has fewer threats to worry about offensively. Regardless of what you’re hearing, Newton is not playing anywhere near MVP level.

Neither team is really good at playing from behind, so I would imagine we’ll get a good taste early of who is going to take control of the NFC with a big win here.

Final score: Packers 23, Panthers 17

Raiders at Steelers

It’s come to the point where Steelers fans basically expect to lose to Oakland, which is just another sign that it’s one of those 8-9 win/miss the playoffs kind of seasons. It happened in 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2013.

Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is 1-4 against Oakland in his Hall of Fame career, which up until this point has seen the Raiders as probably the league’s worst team in that span. This is the best Oakland team he’ll face yet, though the optimism is largely on the offensive side of the ball. That’s why I think this can be a shootout with plenty of passing numbers. Sure, DeAngelo Williams can effectively replace a lot of what Le’Veon Bell did, but this has to be a bounce-back game for Ben, which means a lot of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller. Remember, Oakland has struggled greatly with tight ends this season. I think a 1 p.m. game at home helps Pittsburgh a bit against a West Coast team coming off a huge win. They smashed San Francisco in that situation in Week 2. Not many road triumphs on the resume for a young Derek Carr, but he’s definitely playing the best of the sophomore QBs. I hate to pick a final score this year with Pittsburgh because the defense keeps beating expectations, but I really do see a high-scoring game here. I just think Roethlisberger makes up for last week’s blunder and takes advantage of a middling defense with his weapons.

Final score: Raiders 24, Steelers 34

Broncos at Colts

I knew the NFL would schedule this game around this point since it’s about the time where Peyton Manning should break a significant record we’ve been expecting him to one day own for a long time. They did an even better job than expected, as Manning can set the all-time records for wins and passing yards in the city that drafted him into this league. Manning has thrown for at least 284 yards in about 45 percent of his games, so it’s not a given, but likely to happen. He would break the record in his 264th game — it took Brett Favre 302 games to compile 71,838 passing yards.

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

mydbygame

Denver will likely push for the record, though the Broncos have struggled for a good chunk of all three of Manning’s games with the Colts. They were largely ineffective in the second and third quarters in the 2013 game. The second half of last year’s opener was a struggle, and nearly the whole playoff game in January went poorly as I’ve detailed greatly before. But this week is a bit different. It’s not Manning’s first time back in Indy and he doesn’t have a high ankle sprain like in 2013. It’s not in prime time. It’s not a season opener when things are still new and teams are “full strength.” It’s not a playoff game where Manning is playing on a torn quad. It’s also the 2015 Denver defense taking on a 2015 Indianapolis offense that has by and large looked terrible when not trailing by multiple touchdowns this season. Pep Hamilton was a problem for the Colts, but not even a top-five problem. They fired him as a scapegoat to show some change this week, but good luck to new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinksi trying to game plan for this defense. There’s not much he can really do at this point of the season that would be different, though I guess the Colts have some factor of unpredictability on their side. I just wouldn’t trust any of it (passing to the TEs? more Frank Gore?) to work well against this defense.

Final score: Broncos 31, Colts 19

2015 Week 9 Predictions

I had the Bengals winning by double-digits on TNF. That was an easy choice.

Winners in bold:

  • Jaguars at Jets
  • Titans at Saints
  • Redskins at Patriots
  • Packers at Panthers
  • Dolphins at Bills
  • Rams at Vikings
  • Raiders at Steelers
  • Broncos at Colts
  • Falcons at 49ers
  • Giants at Buccaneers
  • Eagles at Cowboys
  • Bears at Chargers

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Season: 78-41 (.655)

NFL Week 2 Predictions: TD-or-Bust Drives

I didn’t write about it here last week, but I was mentioning on Twitter before the game how Russell Wilson still hasn’t thrown more than 37 passes in a game in the NFL. I believe the last time I wrote about it on here he had 37 the next day in Philadelphia before stopping. Wouldn’t you know on Sunday in St. Louis Wilson hit 41 attempts, albeit in overtime. So that streak is over in his 49th regular-season game.

A lot of times I’ll post a table about a streak and see it broken the next game or sometime soon after. Following Week 1 last year, I showed that the Seahawks had a record 31 consecutive games with a lead in the 4th QT or overtime. In their very next game in San Diego that streak ended with San Diego’s 30-21 win. Are these just strange coincidences or do I have some special kind of jinx power? The answer is really neither, but it’s usually not by accident either. I find a lot of obscure streaks that are records, which means no one else has ever done it before. So if you’re doing something that’s never been done before, it’s very difficult to sustain that. Records are meant to be hard to obtain. So when I keep mentioning Seattle’s NFL record 70-game streak of being at least within one score in the 4th quarter, don’t be surprised if that streak-ending blowout loss is just around the corner.

Last week I highlighted Antonio Brown’s receiving streaks. Odell Beckham’s 9 games with 90+ yards came to a crashing end. Hopefully with Brown on several of my DFS rosters, his streak-stopping day won’t come against the 49ers.

TD-or-Bust Drives

We already had a great start to Week 2 with one of the craziest finishes in NFL history when Jamaal Charles lost a fumble for a game-deciding touchdown in the final minute. I already wrote a 3,000-word recap of the game on Friday, so please check that out.

In that article I mentioned Peyton Manning has had 25 opportunities to start a drive in the final 3:00 of the fourth quarter, down 4-8 points and absolutely needing a touchdown. I just couldn’t let Phil Simms get away with saying Manning’s been in that situation hundreds of times. It’s rare and the number is 25. I showed all 25 of those drives in the article and found that Manning threw an interception of eight of his first nine attempts, all under Jim Mora in 1998-2001 when he was still feeling his oats. When Manning took his game to a new level in 2003 you saw the success start to pile up and he led a total of 8 touchdown drives in this situation. He’s been money in recent years, but how does this compare to his peers? I used Pro-Football-Reference to quickly gather that data, so it’s possible some drives are being omitted due to some timing differences with the kickoff. Example: PFR might say a drive started at 3:03, but it actually started at 2:58 in my data because of the five seconds spent on the kickoff. I base things on when the offense took the field to start the drive. With that said, here are the results for some key active QBs:

Drive3

Thursday night’s success pushes Manning ahead of the pack in TD%, but he also has the highest INT%. Again, all but one of those picks happened in his first four seasons (5 as a rookie in 1998 alone). We also see the Manning brothers had the most average time left while Aaron Rodgers got the short end of the stick there. I’m surprised Roethlisberger is that low, but a lot of his great touchdown drives came in 3-point games (SB 43) or just outside of the 3:00 mark (2008 Ravens). By the way, Tony Romo’s drive last Sunday night is included here so we’ve already seen a couple of great ones this season.

Take away from this what you will, but what I want to highlight is that drives like the one Manning had on Thursday night against the Chiefs are rare and shouldn’t be taken for granted. That’s the kind of moment you remember for years as a fan, whether you were on the winning side or the losing side. NFL Network still airs that 1994 game where Joe Montana threw a late TD to beat John Elway’s Broncos on Monday Night Football. Twenty years from now you might see this game replayed too.

2015 Week 2 Predictions

The quest for one perfect week of picks continues as I’m already 0-1 after picking a team with Alex Smith to beat a team with Peyton Manning starting. Silly me.

Winners in bold

  • Texans at Panthers
  • Lions at Vikings
  • 49ers at Steelers
  • Chargers at Bengals
  • Cardinals at Bears
  • Buccaneers at Saints
  • Titans at Browns
  • Falcons at Giants
  • Rams at Redskins
  • Patriots at Bills
  • Ravens at Raiders
  • Cowboys at Eagles
  • Dolphins at Jaguars
  • Seahawks at Packers
  • Jets at Colts

The 49ers are still a pretty talented team, but I don’t think they’ll take advantage of the poor pass defense the way you should when playing the Steelers right now. Pittsburgh’s offense pushes them ahead to a home win.

If the Saints lose at home to Tampa Bay, I seriously may not pick that team in another game until 2016. I’ve had it.

The Titans shouldn’t blow a 25-point to Cleveland this year. I’m interested to see Johnny Manziel start, but I expect this offense to continue struggling. Ken Whisenhunt and Dick LeBeau have a lot of experience at beating the Browns. Mariota won’t have to throw too much again.

After having no running game on Monday night and playing Dallas this week, DeMarco Murray is someone I expect to have a huge Week 2. The only thing that might stop him is Chip Kelly’s rotation of the three backs, because that’s a very difficult thing to manage with the talent you get from Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews. But I expect Murray to get most of the touches this week. Eagles clean up some things defensively and no Dez Bryant is a big blow to Dallas.

The Jets are a sneaky-tough opponent for the Colts at home, but I think Indy finds a way to win that one at home. Or for Ryan Fitzpatrick to lose it. Either way.

Seahawks at Packers is indeed the big one on SNF. This time it won’t be in Seattle and Kam Chancellor won’t be playing, but neither will Jordy Nelson (and Bryan Bulaga). This is Aaron Rodgers’ best shot to have a good game against this defense, and I think this could be the week Davante Adams actually shines like he was so hyped to do. Remember, he was supposed to be the x-factor in the NFC Championship Game. He caught one ball for 7 yards. With James Jones coming on last week and Randall Cobb always a threat, Adams could have some favorable matchups against a secondary that just isn’t as deep with all the injuries (Jeremy Lane) and holdouts going on this year. This game can basically decide who gets the No. 1 seed in the NFC and it’s only Week 2. Still, I can’t fathom Seattle starting 0-2. I think Marshawn Lynch is a huge part of the gameplan — no 41 throws this week — and the Seahawks grind out a close one.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6

The Top 64 Quarterbacks in NFL History (2015 Edition) – Part I

This definitely won’t be short. However, I’m not wasting any time in showing you my updated list of the 64 greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

top64QB15

This is not created with a formula. I put everything I’ve learned and experienced from over a decade of research into creating this ranking. The only things I do not factor in are college career and time spent in other professional leagues like the AAFC, USFL, CFL, XFL, Arena, etc. So you’re still just a one-year wonder to me, Tommy Maddox.

Some players moved around from the 2014 edition, posted last August. So why is this going to be written in two parts on my blog? I figured some people won’t want to scroll through the epic length of Manning vs. Brady to read about the other players. For those who want to see the irrational debate rationalized, I promise Part II is worth the wait.

This might actually be the first time I have formally written about my list of the 64 greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. It was a personal project I started six years ago in an effort to figure out where Ben Roethlisberger stood historically after his fifth season (2008). Such rankings are subjective of course, but sports wouldn’t be the same without this stuff. Even if “that’s your opinion!” means you can’t objectively prove Roethlisberger is a better QB than Neil O’Donnell, Kordell Stewart, Mark Malone and Bubby Brister, you damn sure can make a convincing argument why he is better.

Just look at my list. Once you get past 30 or so, you’re looking at guys who maybe had six quality seasons, or a phenomenal four-year run like Rich Gannon (1999-2002) in Oakland. There aren’t many quarterbacks who sustained greatness over a long period of time in the NFL’s 95-year history. A total of 221 players have thrown at least 1,000 passes in the regular season in NFL history. Unless you mostly played before 1932 (Benny Friedman), are the latest hot rookie/sophomore (Teddy Bridgewater), or your name is Greg Cook or Cecil Isbell, you’re not even relevant from an all-time perspective. A thousand passes is about two seasons these days for a starter. Even the Browns let Derek Anderson throw 992 passes in 2007-09.

My method was to move up the list of all-time attempts, picking out which quarterbacks Roethlisberger was clearly better than, and grouping those he still has to surpass. A few years later I did something very similar to gauge where Joe Flacco stood after his fifth season (2012) led to the destruction of the QB salary market. Since then I’ve had a more concrete list and have updated it annually before the new season. The following explains some of my thought process, especially for the active players.

Five Actives in the Top 15 OF ALL TIME!?!?

I know some people are wondering how I could possibly think five of the 15 greatest QBs in NFL history are playing right now. Well, from 1991-94 we had Montana, Marino, Favre, Young and Elway active. That’s five of my top eight, so there*. Throw in Aikman, Kelly and Moon, and that’s eight of my top 28. It clearly can be done, and I think this has been a golden age of passing that’s not likely to be matched any time soon.

*Counter (because I know how to argue with myself): But Scott, were those five guys worthy of the top eight in 1991-94? This is a fair point. I don’t think Favre and Young were thru 1994, though both were well on their way. I think you could definitely have ranked Montana, Marino and Elway that high by then. My list thru 1994 would look something like Montana, Unitas, Marino, Staubach, Baugh, Tarkenton, Graham, Elway (ahead of Starr and Bradshaw). So yeah, three in the top eight with Young coming off his 6 TDs in the Super Bowl/2nd MVP award and Favre just getting ready for a 3-MVP run. This is legit.

Are the modern rules and modern medicine making it easier to sustain QB success in the NFL? I hesitate to say yes to that, because look at how many quarterbacks can’t sustain their success. Robert Griffin III had his one good year, but has been a disaster ever since. Josh Freeman (2010) can kind of relate, and I hate to see the path Colin Kaepernick is starting to head down after such early promise. Matt Schaub crumbled in 2013 after Richard Sherman picked off his confidence. Carson Palmer has fallen apart a few times, literally and figuratively. Michael Vick was never consistent and managed to have his best years four years apart (2002, 2006 and 2010). Jay Cutler and Cam Newton still can’t hit a 90.0 passer rating season in an era where it’s become common to do so. Matthew Stafford’s pretty much in the same tier, starring as the volume-heavy Drew Bledsoe of his era. Highly drafted quarterbacks are still flopping hard too (see: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Joey Harrington, Matt Leinart, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, etc.). Are rookie QBs overall more successful now? Sure, but they’re also getting more opportunities as of 2008. Try telling Blake Bortles and Derek Carr this is an easy game.

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Where are all the great quarterbacks coming into the NFL since 2006? We’ve seen dips before, but this is starting to get alarming. Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson look like the best options, and I obviously think highly of Flacco and Ryan’s seven-year starts, but that’s about it since 2006. Save us, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Mariota and Winston. We need to start having some insurance that this next era when these HOF passers are retired will still be good.

(B)rees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger

We have clearly been spoiled from watching the highest level of sustained QB play in NFL history. We’ve known about “1812” for so long now, but the consistency of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger is also special. Brees broke out in 2004, the rookie season breakout for Ben. Rodgers didn’t get to start until 2008, but I think he just locked up his spot in Canton after his second MVP season in 2014. No, it wasn’t as good as his 2011, but it was another monster year of dominant efficiency and it moved him up from 26th to 14th for me. Roethlisberger is the first great QB I can say I’ve been able to watch every game of his career live. You could definitely make the claim 2014 was his finest season yet. He’ll always be the first quarterback to have multiple 500-yard passing games, and the first to have back-to-back games with six touchdown passes. All of those games were against teams that made the playoffs.

The reasons I keep Brees ahead at 13th are that I think this 11-year run he’s been on (zero starts missed due to injury) is incredible, and he has quite arguably been better in the playoffs than the other two. He just needs to get there with more consistency, though he’s gotten the short end of the stick defensively when it comes to that top five active group. Brees was still great in 2014, but he had some bad decisions at important times. I don’t think he’s done yet by any means, though I question how much higher I could rank him on this list. He might be fifth in his era when it’s all said and done. That’s really not an insult either. This group is simply special.

Some might even put Rodgers higher than 14th, but I think that’s pretty generous for someone who has been a starter for seven years, including a debut season that was more solid than spectacular (2008) and a half-season due to injury (2013). Rodgers’ stats look off the charts right now, but that’s also the benefit of having 100 percent peak performance in this era of great stats. When you look at advanced metrics, especially ones that include sacks, Rodgers is much closer to his peers. Rodgers has led the league in Total QBR one time (2011) and in passing DVOA two times (2011 and 2014).

Any mainstream criticism of Rodgers is almost nonexistent, but I expect that to change if he continues to not shine in January as has been the case since he won a Super Bowl in 2010. His struggles against the other NFC champions in that time have been troublesome, but the good news is the Giants and 49ers don’t look to be contenders any time soon. Seattle is the defense he has to figure out. And yes, I still think he struggles more than the other top quarterbacks when it comes to comebacks or having to win in different styles. If he doesn’t start a game well, I just don’t expect him to pull it together late. Winning ugly is not on the menu yet. He needs to come out with his ‘A’ game, and his ‘A’ game is pretty much as good as any quarterback’s that’s ever played in the NFL. When he’s on, he’s unstoppable. But when he’s off like in Buffalo and Detroit last year or against Seattle, he doesn’t impress.

But if these other guys ever retire soon and the young quarterbacks don’t pan out, Rodgers could enjoy a nice run at various league-leads and awards if his only real competition is Luck. Going forward, I worry a little about Rodgers’ durability, because he still takes some really bad sacks. It’s hard to believe this is already going to be his age-32 season. Health is about the only thing that could stop him from cracking the top 10 soon. If his next seven years are in line with the last seven, I expect to see Rodgers in my top five one day.

apvotes

The elite MVP seasons of Rodgers are what put him over Ben, who hasn’t had years like that yet. Amazingly, Roethlisberger has never received an All-Pro vote in his career. He’s also only had three seasons where he’s started all 16 games. The main problem is his best seasons (2007, 2009 and 2014) are years where a lot of quarterbacks were standouts, so it’s understandable why he didn’t get a vote. But considering Luck and Brady got AP votes last year, you could definitely argue Ben deserved one in 2014.

Roethlisberger is having an unusual career path. He had personal and team success immediately, but he’s been statistically better in the second half of his career when he’s had to pick up more of the slack. However, he hasn’t had much playoff success since the night he led that epic drive to beat Arizona in Super Bowl 43. This year the Steelers seem to be fielding their worst defense yet around Ben, which feels like an 8-8 season in the making. Basically, the Steelers are turning into the Saints, which is good for Ben’s fantasy numbers, but terrible for his playoff success. He definitely doesn’t need to get to another Super Bowl, but how is this thing going to end? Is he going through a rough team patch like 1992-95 Elway, only to get a better team around him at the end? Is he going to fade away like Aikman in Dallas, unable to keep the team consistently in the playoffs after their talent core declined? Is he going to have an abrupt ending after taking a shot so big he can’t recover from it?

I’ll end this section by explaining some of the decision to move Rodgers and Roethlisberger past the players previously ranked 14-25. Since most of us can agree Rodgers has had the more dominant career, we’ll just look at this from Ben’s standpoint.

Roethlisberger is entering his 12th year as a starter, which already puts him on a short list of QBs in NFL history. Jim Kelly played 11 NFL seasons. Are you really going to tell me Roethlisberger’s play in the regular season and postseason hasn’t exceeded Kelly’s? It’s not a huge difference, which is why there are only five players between them, but Roethlisberger has put together a better resume with more to come. Kurt Warner played 12 seasons, and we know only six of them really count for his HOF push. He had higher highs than Ben, but good lord did he have many lower lows.

Quarterback is a position where you need to be the full-time starter to have value for your team. This is why I don’t put much stock at all in partial seasons where a guy throws like 150 passes and wins some games off the bench, or makes four decent starts, or has a good seven-game stretch before a season-ending injury. Screw that. True value is found by suiting up every week year after year. Ben’s missed 17 games in his career for various reasons, but he’s found a way to start at least 12 games in every season. That’s important. If he does it in 2015, he’ll be the 10th QB with a dozen starts in at least a dozen different seasons. I factored this into a lot of my decisions here, as a guy like Len Dawson played 19 seasons, but you can basically chop off the first five and the last three, leaving 11 years (1962-1972). Do I think that stretch, largely done in the AFL, is more impressive than Roethlisberger’s 11 years? I don’t anymore, so I moved him past Dawson this year.

Similarly, I downplay Sid Luckman vs. Ben due to his peak coming in WWII seasons, and I don’t see any value in his final two seasons (1949-50). I downplay Norm Van Brocklin’s career for spending time in his prime in a two-QB system with Bob Waterfield and facing some suspect competition. For Y.A. Tittle, I really respect his 1961-63 seasons with the Giants, but he’s another guy with a ton of seasons you have to throw away due to the AAFC, injuries or him just being terrible (1964 swansong). He had about seven or eight really solid years overall, which again I think Roethlisberger has exceeded. So I moved him ahead of those guys.

When the worst thing you can point to in Roethlisberger’s career is his 2006 season, that’s very telling of the quality of his career. Yes, he threw 23 picks, but he still finished 10th in DYAR and 13th in DVOA. He dealt with a motorcycle accident, an emergency appendectomy and a concussion after he was getting back to form. If that’s the low point of your 11-year career, then you’re probably having a hell of a career. A lot of guys sink lower than that.

Which finally leads me to putting Ben (and Rodgers) ahead of Dan Fouts, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw and Bart Starr. Let’s get Fouts of the way quickly. He was great for eight years (1978-1985) in a record-setting passing offense, which I really respect. That’s why he’s 19th. His other seven seasons and his lack of playoff success — started and ended with 5-INT games — are why he isn’t higher. That’s a good chunk of negative that you can’t just ignore, though I admittedly don’t do a good enough job of punishing for the bad years.

Speaking of bad years, Aikman, Bradshaw and Starr had several and it’s only fitting to talk about this trio together. In fact, Starr was almost worthless without Vince Lombardi as his head coach. Bradshaw is lucky Joe Gilliam was ineffective in 1974, because he may have lost his starting job for good after an (extended) awful start to his career. Aikman was one of the worst QBs in the NFL his first two years, and his finale (2000) was on that level. Yet all three were the quarterbacks of dynasties, the best teams in their decades with great players on both sides of the ball and fantastic coaching. They all won at least three titles and had some great efficiency stats in those playoff wins. These quarterbacks had some nice regular-season numbers at times, but the volume wasn’t there to match their peers. Unitas was better than Starr. Staubach was better than Bradshaw. Young and Favre were better than Aikman if we’re just talking 1990’s NFC. But #RINGZ.

When asked to carry flawed teams, these quarterbacks weren’t capable of getting the job done. When their team’s talent wasn’t up to the level of all-time great, they couldn’t get them into the playoffs with any consistency. Now I won’t slam these guys as much as I would a caretaker like Bob Griese — they’re still in my top 18 — but they just had easier jobs in their primes. Throwing the ball 30 or 40 times wasn’t the plan, let alone a necessity.

I think Roethlisberger would have more than two rings if he had the Steel Curtain defense instead of Dick LeBeau’s “My Defense Works for 75% of the Game Against 75% of the NFL” shtick. But just to start any game with an average team, I’m taking Roethlisberger over Bradshaw, Starr and Aikman. That trio was only effective for about 8-9 years each. Roethlisberger has already surpassed that.

But without a strong finish, I think Ben is going to be stuck at 15 until someone moves ahead of him, or if his play really declines. His career has essentially peaked from an all-time perspective, but as long as the story is still being written, there’s always a chance of changing your legacy. I just don’t think the Steelers are going to build another balanced team in time for him to do so.

Change of Heart: Tarkenton over Graham

The only other change in my top 30 was swapping Fran Tarkenton for Otto Graham. Given what I value in QBs, this should have been the case years ago. Career length is a big factor. Tarkenton was essentially a starting QB for 18 NFL seasons compared to just six for Graham. Remember, I don’t care about the AAFC. What’s amazing is how Tarkenton was such a model of consistency despite his chaotic, scrambling style — he had one below-average passing efficiency season (1962) in 18 years according to Pro-Football-Reference’s advanced tables that adjust for era. Despite all his running around, he was very durable and never had more than eight fumbles in a season. While he never had the stunning peak of a Tittle or Jurgensen, Tarkenton ranks as high as anyone when it comes to the number of quality QB seasons in the NFL. He was a star for nearly two decades, and he retired as the all-time leader in wins, passing yards and touchdown passes. In fact, he’s held the passing yardage record longer than any player in NFL history.

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Tarkenton amassed those numbers without throwing more than 25 touchdowns to any player. John Gilliam was his top guy. Tarkenton excelled under multiple coaches and for multiple teams (Giants and Vikings). He might have been the first great one-man show at quarterback, but unfortunately those guys don’t win rings. With or without Tarkenton, Bud Grant’s Vikings great defense (“Purple People Eaters”) was routinely run over in big games. In his 1975 MVP season, Tarkenton lost at home in the playoffs to Dallas thanks to a 50-yard Hail Mary from Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson (push off?) in the final minute. It remains the only game-winning Hail Mary in NFL playoff history and it came at the expense of one of the game’s finest players.

When it comes to Otto Graham, the first thing people like to mention is he led the Browns to 10 championship games in his 10 seasons. It’s as if Graham was the only player in the AAFC, and he’s certainly the only player people ever choose to recognize the stats and accomplishments of from the AAFC. I just want to point out Graham won just as many NFL Championship Games (3) as he lost. Some of the losses were absolutely brutal too. We weren’t that far off from having Bobby Layne and the Lions as the dynasty of that time.

The truth is Graham was a great player on the league’s most loaded team (7-9 HOFers every year), with a great defense and a true innovator (Paul Brown) as his head coach. Players in such situations don’t get full credit from me, because their job was easier. I still think enough of Graham to rank him 12th, and he was the best quarterback of that era (1950-55). He also wasn’t just some caretaker as he won two passing yardage titles. When you rank first in NFL history in passing yards per attempt (8.63), albeit in six seasons, you’re going to earn my respect. I just wish we would stop padding the AAFC stuff onto his legacy, because that league was not up to par with the NFL, which actually drafted Graham in 1944 (Lions). He didn’t play then because of World War II.

Graham is a player I expect to keep dropping as some of the players in my previous section continue to have long, successful careers in a more competitive era.

Eli Manning: Why?

Every year I post this list one of the main responses is why is Eli Manning so high? It bothers me too, because he should be about 10 spots lower with the other New York guys and right there with Romo and Rivers. I just haven’t had the heart to move him since first putting him 29th after the 2012 season. He was a joke in 2013 and played much better last year, but the fact is the Giants have missed the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. Eli and the Giants are like leap year: they strike every four years in February. 2008, 2012, and uh-oh, 2016 is next. It would only be fitting for the Giants to start with a bang (JPP), end with a bang (third title…Odell Beckham Jr. one-handed catch to beat New England of course) and for Eli to become the highest-paid player in NFL history.

At least that scenario would help keep my sanity about ranking him this high. Eli really is frustrating because you see the moments of older brother-like brilliance, but then you see the plays that would make Archie shake his head. Eli’s always been very good in 4QC/GWD situations, and I still think he engineered the greatest drive in NFL history with everything at stake in Super Bowl 42. The fact that he starts every single game cannot be undervalued either. It’s not easy to have 10 straight 3,000-yard passing seasons in the NFL. Only six other quarterbacks have had more such years. I think Eli’s 2011 season was one of the finest jobs of a QB carrying his team that we’ve seen, and even then it was a 9-7 year that barely resulted in a division title. Eli just doesn’t have the same efficiency as his peers, though his offenses do well at scoring and he doesn’t take many sacks.

If Eli’s playoff record remains intact at 8-3, then that’s very disappointing for the Giants, because that means they continued to miss the playoffs. You can’t go one-and-done or throw game-ending interceptions in January if you keep failing enough from September through December. That’s probably the single most frustrating thing about Eli. His regular-season defenses haven’t been good, so he gets credit for dealing with that. But in the playoffs, those defenses were outstanding, never allowing more than 23 points in any game and shutting down some of the best offenses in NFL history. And yet the QB still gets the most credit there. I want to see some more playoff losses, Eli. Preferably wins, but just get in the damn tournament. Increase that sample size. Give us some insurance you didn’t just have two one-month hot streaks four years apart. I’m going to drop him next year if 2015 doesn’t go well. Promise.

Ken Stabler for the HOF?

As I predicted this summer, the passing of Ken Stabler has led to him getting another look from the Hall of Fame as 2016’s senior nominee. Unfortunately he won’t be able to enjoy it if he gets in (good chance), but that’s how these things work sometimes. I believe enough time has passed to where a discussion on the merits of Stabler’s HOF case wouldn’t sound insensitive.

Stabler is one of four QBs (Charlie Conerly, Ken Anderson and Kurt Warner) to be a HOF finalist without getting voted in. We know there was some media vitriol going back to his playing days going on behind the scenes to keep Stabler out, so with new voters, that’s not likely to remain an issue. Personally, I can accept Stabler getting into the HOF. I’d sooner back Ken Anderson, but Stabler wouldn’t be a bad choice.

The argument for Stabler is simple: you’ve let George Blanda and Joe Namath in already. You can see I put Stabler ahead of both. Those guys had their peak years in the AFL. Stabler’s best years all came in the 1970’s NFL, the toughest modern decade of passing. He played against a lot of legendary defenses and teams, and definitely had the “Fame” part down with big plays in games with names. He was a very good postseason performer, winning a Super Bowl in 1976. He was also league MVP in 1974 and at least the second-best QB in 1976 (AP second-team All-Pro). Not many QBs can claim those accolades in NFL history. Stabler’s peak really lasted seven seasons (1973-79), but as we have looked at here, that’s still very good from a historical standpoint.

One problem for The Snake is that he threw a lot of interceptions, even for his era. In fact, here are some damning facts:

  • Most games with 4+ interceptions since 1970 merger (including playoffs): Ken Stabler (14)
  • Most games with 5+ interceptions since 1970 merger (including playoffs): Ken Stabler (5)

Stabler is also tied for the third-most games with at least three interceptions (29). Stabler somehow threw 20-30 interceptions in each season from 1977-1980, but still had a winning record each season. It was a different game then, but Stabler still threw too many picks. But again, that didn’t stop voters from keeping Namath and Blanda out. Stabler’s last few years with the Oilers and Saints don’t do him any favors. It’s all about the Oakland run, and that was strong enough in my book to crack the top 30. That also looks to be enough for the standards of the HOF. If you haven’t figured it out, the players in yellow in the list are in the HOF (red are active).

Marginal Moves You Probably Don’t Care About

I moved Phil Simms down four spots to 38 after becoming more impressed with the Giants’ defense and less impressed with his individual contributions.

I moved John Brodie up three spots to 32 after seeing he was one of the hardest quarterbacks to sack. Not quite Marino or Peyton level, but right up there. Part of his ascension was also at the cost of moving Bob Griese down a notch. Why did I do that? Well…

The Same Guy, But One’s Slower: Tony Romo and Philip Rivers

I’ve compared Rivers and Romo a few times over the years as equivalents in each conference. They’re basically the Dan Fouts and Warren Moon of this era: the best quarterbacks to not reach a Super Bowl. It’s a shame because this is the era of the Super Bowl quarterback. A record eight active QBs have a Super Bowl ring. Rivers and Romo have some of the highest passer ratings and YPA averages in NFL history, but haven’t enjoyed much January success for various reasons.

I had these guys 53rd and 54th last year. Romo just had probably the best year of his career, and probably deserved to be MVP if he didn’t get hurt against the Redskins on MNF. He moves ahead of Rivers, who had a MVP-like start, but faded fast after a probable rib injury hampered his play.

Both of these guys became relevant in the 2006 season as first-time starters. Here’s how I stack them up.

  • 2006: Rivers gets the edge for being the full-year starter (1-0)
  • 2007: Big edge to Romo (1-1)
  • 2008: Big edge to Rivers (2-1)
  • 2009: Romo good, but Rivers arguably at his best (3-1)
  • 2010: Not enthralled with this Rivers season, but Romo had broken collarbone (4-1)
  • 2011: Big edge to Romo (4-2)
  • 2012: Big edge to Romo (4-3)
  • 2013: Both did great things, but slight edge to Rivers (5-3)
  • 2014: Big edge to Romo (5-4)

Rivers wins the total seasons, 5-4, but Romo had more decisively better years. I also can’t help but side with Romo in the difference of styles. Romo can improvise under pressure, while Rivers can waddle towards the sideline and throw the ball away. Either way they are close, and you’d be fooling yourself to think otherwise.

These guys have been at it for nine years, and have mostly been consistent in that time. In fact, Romo has hit these bare minimums in a record nine straight seasons: 61.3% completions, 7.2 YPA and 90.5 passer rating.

These guys have winning records. They’ve led teams to No. 1 seeds and multiple 12-win seasons. They’ve had more playoff heartbreak than success, but at least they have won some games. More than Y.A. Tittle and Sonny Jurgensen for starters — that’d be none for those guys. And nine seasons as annual top 5-10 quarterbacks is really damn good. That’s why I ended up moving them past the guys with six good years or a smaller number of great years.

Yes, neither has won an MVP award like Steve McNair, Rich Gannon, Boomer Esiason, Bert Jones and Joe Theismann did, but just remember the competition from that elite group. This is the hardest era to win an award like that in. You really think Theismann, who was good for six years, is a better QB than these two? Give these guys Joe Gibbs and the Hogs instead of Norv Turner and Jason Garrett and see what happens. You want to talk about playoff failures? Boomer Esiason never threw for more than 150 yards in his five playoff starts. McNair, may he rest in peace, was a dreadful postseason QB who can thank the Music City Miracle for not leaving him with a 2-5 career playoff record. Bert Jones never won a playoff game either, was a hit machine and couldn’t stay healthy. Rivers has never missed a start in his career and even played on a torn ACL.

I think Romo and Rivers can crack the top 30 with strong finishes. As you can see, there’s just not much separating these players at this part of the table. A Super Bowl for either is likely a ticket to Canton as well.

More Shit You Really Don’t Care About

I dropped Don Meredith six spots to 58 after acknowledging he’s another QB with just about six relevant years.

I dropped Dave Krieg five spots after realizing some of his best seasons were small samples due to injury or being a backup. It’s kind of amazing he made the Pro Bowl despite playing 9 games in 1988, and it’s baffling why he made it at all in 1989. That was a poor year for the AFC though.

I got Matt Hasselbeck ahead of Bernie Kosar now, because I think his run of relevance (2002-07) is underappreciated. I don’t really blame Kosar for not getting to a Super Bowl (bad Cleveland luck), but I blame him for only having about six or seven relevant seasons.

Ryan vs. Flacco (Again)

Seriously, the Joe Flacco vs. Matt Ryan debates are quite heated — or elite as fvck depending whom you ask — on the internet. I guess I’m adding to it by simply ranking Ryan one spot ahead, the same as I did last year, but these two deserve to be very close. Advanced metrics will tell you Ryan is considerably better in his career, but 2014 was a different story. Flacco was 8th in DYAR; Ryan was 7th. Flacco was 8th in DVOA; Ryan was 9th. Flacco was 10th in QBR; Ryan was 7th. Hmm, that last one seemed to change more with the new QBR system, which surprises me since it’s supposed to devalue YAC. You saw those Antone Smith touchdowns last year, right? Then again, what do you do with the Steve Smith fluky touchdown against Carolina?

Either way, they were very close last year, which was arguably Flacco’s best regular season. Of course what happens here is Flacco has the edge in the playoffs, including getting there all but one time in his seven seasons. Ryan has had strong numbers the last two years, but Atlanta is just 10-22 and couldn’t win a pathetic division last year. Advantage: Flacco.

But I really wish something major would happen to create some separation between these two. Until it does, I’m going to continue ranking them side by side. I just hope other people can appreciate the seven-year starts they’ve had to their careers. Appreciate them even more when you consider the lack of quality signal callers joining the NFL since 2006 as detailed above.

Whither Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson?

Why didn’t I include Luck and Wilson? Well, they’ve only played three seasons. Despite the lack of great all-time quarterbacks, three seasons, no matter how impressive they are as a start, are a tiny sample to get into the top 64. However, I quickly threw together some names to branch out of the top 64 and I feel like it’s very possible Luck and Wilson could join this list after 2015. I also think it’s just as possible that at least one takes an unexpected step back this year. We’ll see what happens. And really, I just kept adding to this list Saturday night, and didn’t spend anywhere near as much time on it as I’ve spent on the top 64. I can tell you Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill and even Andy Dalton are a big 2015 away from showing up in the top 130. Yes, even Dalton, which just goes to show how little you have to do to be considered an all-time quarterback.

Part II Preview

Why did Tom Brady stay put at No. 5 after his fourth Super Bowl, and why is Peyton Manning still on top? That’s what I’ll tackle in Part II, along with taking down the thin margin of what makes success in the postseason possible.

If you want an advanced copy of the tl;dr version of Part II, here it is:

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NFL Week 9 Predictions: Manning vs. Brady Is Coke vs. Pepsi

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are like Coke and Pepsi, the two biggest brands in the world.

You can appreciate both for what they are, but Coke (Manning) has always been better.

That’s my opinion and nothing I’ve seen in 14 years (and even longer on the Pepsi-Coke front) has been good enough to change my mind.

They meet for the 16th time on Sunday and I have already done a game preview at FO, so I implore you to read it if you haven’t yet.

There’s no denying this is the biggest game in the AFC this regular season. It usually is. The winner has had home-field advantage over the other except for the last two years. One of these quarterbacks has had the No. 1 seed in the AFC in eight of the last 11 seasons.

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Rarely does this rivalry bring out the best in each quarterback. Only about half of the games featured both quarterbacks playing very well. An even smaller number of meetings were actually decided by one of these quarterbacks.

Last year’s 34-31 overtime classic in Foxboro was a perfect example. In a 31-31 tie, these quarterbacks had a combined seven drives to put their team ahead, but neither could do so. The Patriots only won after Denver muffed a punt return at its own 15-yard line.

Manning hasn’t won in Foxboro since the 2006 game in which he played very well, but Brady threw four interceptions in his worst performance of the series. Manning’s worst game, the 2003 AFC Championship, saw him throw four interceptions, but Brady tried his hardest to match on a sloppy day.

When you look at the nine games in Foxboro, Manning-led teams are 2-7 and constantly shot themselves in the foot on every side of the ball. Sometimes it was in the most unlikely of ways. I got a copy of the first Brady-Manning game from 2001 and somehow Edgerrin James turned this low pass into a juggling interception for the Patriots:

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Remember the 2012 game with Denver? Demaryius Thomas fumbled in the red zone after a long gain. Danny Woodhead converted on the ground on a third-and-17 run. Manning lost  a fumble. In the fourth quarter, Willis McGahee single-handedly blew Denver’s comeback attempt by dropping a fourth-down pass and fumbling at the NE 11 with 3:42 to play.

The Brady-Manning game with some of the best quarterbacking from both was the 2004 season opener. In the fourth quarter, down 27-24 with 3:51 left, Edgerrin James fumbled at the 1-yard line on first down. Manning was later sacked by an unblocked Wilile McGinest and Mike Vanderjagt missed a 48-yard field goal with 19 seconds left.

Some have compared this week’s game to the 2005 meeting on Monday Night Football simply due to the alleged superiority of Manning’s team. That 2005 game was the biggest team advantage Manning’s ever had over Brady and it was a 40-21 beatdown. Both quarterbacks played at a high level, but the Colts were just too much for NE that night.

I don’t think the Broncos are that much better than the Patriots right now. It’s also not lost on me that in his five wins in the rivalry, Manning has thrown for a minimum of 321 yards and scored at least 26 points. Can he do both on Sunday? Sure, but it still feels like he’ll have to do both if Denver’s going to win. The teams aren’t uneven enough to expect he can get by with an average day.

If the game was in Denver it would probably be a comfortable win for the home team, but on Halloween weekend, I know Foxboro has been a house of horrors for Manning teams and Belichick will have Rob Gronkowski and Darrelle Revis at his disposal this time around.

Final prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 24

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I cautiously picked the Saints on TNF, but they delivered on the road.

Winners in bold:

  • Cardinals at Cowboys
  • Redskins at Vikings
  • Chargers at Dolphins
  • Jets at Chiefs
  • Eagles at Texans
  • Jaguars at Bengals
  • Buccaneers at Browns
  • Rams at 49ers
  • Broncos at Patriots
  • Raiders at Seahawks
  • Ravens at Steelers
  • Colts at Giants

Whether it’s ailing Tony Romo or old-but-inexperienced Brandon Weeden, I’ve been big on Arizona this week. This should be the game where DeMarco Murray’s 100-yard game streak ends, but I get the feeling he’ll be force-fed the ball (30 carries if possible) because of the quarterback situation. But I like the aggressive Cardinals on the road in another tight one.

Speaking of tight ones, the Steelers and Ravens should get back to a usual 3-point outcome this week. I think the big hit Ben Roethlisberger suffered at the start of the Week 2 game threw him off that night and the Steelers are playing much better now. I like them to win 23-20 here. Roethlisberger’s stats might be cut in half after last week, but 260 yards and 3 TD sounds more than adequate against Baltimore without Jimmy Smith at CB.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Total: 76-44-1

NFL Week 7 Predictions: Peyton Manning and the TD Record

If you’ve been following along on Twitter this week, you probably know I’ve had a major PC problem. I had some files backed up, but fortunately I was able to back everything up yesterday. So I haven’t lost any of the data I spend much of my time working on as a career and hobby. I’ll have a better PC this week, but for now I’m going to be brief on this week’s preview.

The Passing TD Record

Week 7 has a real solid schedule, but obviously the highlight game is SNF: 49ers at Broncos. Out of the 64 AFC-NFC matchups this year, this is one of the most likely to be a rematch in February. These teams have been among the best the past few years and this should be a competitive one, prime-time blowouts be damned.

There’s also some major NFL history at stake with Peyton Manning needing three touchdown passes to surpass Brett Favre (508).

Why is it major? There aren’t many more satisfying plays for a quarterback than to throw a touchdown pass. Throw a bunch of them and you’re going to have plenty of highlights and wins.

It’s also a record that rarely changes in NFL history. Here’s a chronology of the TD pass record since the start of the modern era in the NFL (1950):

  • 1950 (start of season) – Sammy Baugh, the first quarterback to ever throw 100 TDs, had 168 (retired with 187)
  • 12/10/1961 – Bobby Layne tied Baugh with his 187th TD pass
  • 9/23/1962 – Layne set record with 188th TD pass (finished with 196)
  • 12/1/1963 – Y.A. Tittle (we have to exclude his 1948-49 AAFC stats) tied Layne with his 196th TD pass and surpassed him with his 197th (finished with 212)
  • 9/18/1966 – Johnny Unitas tied and surpassed Tittle with four touchdowns against the Vikings (finished with 290)
  • 12/20/1975 – Fran Tarkenton tied and surpassed Unitas with two touchdowns against the Bills (finished with 342)
  • 11/20/1995 – Dan Marino tied Tarkenton at 242.
  • 11/26/1995 – Marino surpassed Tarkenton with four touchdowns against the Colts (finished with 420)
  • 9/23/2007 – Brett Favre tied Marino at 420.
  • 9/30/2007 – Favre surpassed Marino with two touchdowns against the Vikings (finished with 508)

Manning will be only the 8th quarterback in the post-WWII era to hold the record. With his finish to be determined, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck may be the only active players with a realistic shot to catch Manning some day.

Updating a table (click to enlarge) I first compiled months ago, here’s a look at the most TD passes in NFL history based on minimum distance (yards gained):

minTDdist

The table is easy to read and only includes regular-season touchdown passes. Peyton has thrown 111 touchdowns that gained at least 30 yards, the most of any quarterback ever.

If Manning’s next TD pass is at least 34 yards, he’ll break seven ties in the 2-34 range. He has a good shot to retire with his name in first on 1-40 yards. He also needs one 70+ TD pass to break that tie with Favre, but those are very rare.

Manning has 24 games with Denver with 3+ TD passes, so I think he’ll get it over with on Sunday night.

Final prediction: 49ers 20, Broncos 27

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Of course I had the Patriots on TNF, but that was much closer than expected.

Winners in bold:

  • Panthers at Packers
  • Falcons at Ravens
  • Vikings at Bills
  • Browns at Jaguars
  • Bengals at Colts
  • Dolphins at Bears
  • Saints at Lions
  • Titans at Redskins
  • Seahawks at Rams
  • Chiefs at Chargers
  • Giants at Cowboys
  • Cardinals at Raiders
  • 49ers at Broncos
  • Texans at Steelers

Road teams ruled last week, but I like many of the home teams this week (but not the homers that come with them).

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Total: 56-34-1