NFL Week 9 Predictions: Relevant Oakland Edition

We’re nearly at the true halfway point of the regular season. On Friday, I wrote a piece about the lack of parity in the NFL, especially in the AFC. One team could change some of that perception with a good win this week.

Steelers at Ravens

Rare to see two teams have a bye week before their regular-season matchup, but here we are. The big question is: will he or won’t he play? We’re talking about Ben Roethlisberger of course, who I swear is contractually obligated to miss at least one Baltimore game per season. The Ravens are 6-1 against the Steelers when Ben is out, but he also has a bad history of playing in his first game back from injury too. This torn meniscus was potentially a 4-6 week injury too, so questionable in this case may truly be questionable. Overall, I think the Steelers have the better team this year, and should have enough firepower to outscore a Baltimore offense that has been very lackluster, already firing its offensive coordinator. Joe Flacco is loading up on failed completions (four weeks in a row with 10+), but I can see a motivated Mike Wallace catching a bomb in this one to stick it to his old team. Fortunately, he’s still pretty limited to showing up on one or two drives per game instead of being a true dominant threat like he was in 2010-11. I want to see if Le’Veon Bell can make it look effortless against a stingy run defense, or if he’ll struggle to gain much traction and have to rely on being a threat in the passing game instead. Last year, Roethlisberger played his worst game of the season in a classic “played down to the competition” game for the Steelers in Week 16 with the playoffs hanging in the balance. Seriously, this team was hanging 30+ on everyone, and came out with a piss-poor effort against a Baltimore team that was starting Ryan Mallett at quarterback. The Steelers made him look like Joe Montana (KC version at least). We know these teams usually play a close one, and my half-assed reason for picking Pittsburgh is that I just can’t see them losing three in a row, but it’s certainly a possibility as long as the quarterback isn’t 100 percent, which I doubt he could be so soon.

Colts at Packers

This will most likely be the second of three career meetings between Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. The first was a classic in 2012. The Colts, just getting the news about Chuck Pagano’s cancer, rallied from 18 points down to beat the Packers 30-27. It was really the first special Luck performance in the NFL, and set up the Colts for a season of success. Luck will have to be even better on Sunday, because I think Green Bay’s offense is going to continue looking good against bad defenses, like it has against Detroit, Chicago and Atlanta this year. The Colts may be worse than all three of them, and when they go on the road, forget about it. Rodgers at home is often dynamite, and I think he gets back on track with the big play to Jordy Nelson this week. It can still certainly be a shootout or big Indy comeback if Luck is on point with T.Y. Hilton (ailing a bit this week), because we know the Green Bay secondary is very banged up too. I just don’t think the Colts have enough to slow Green Bay down, while the Packers will contain Frank Gore and make this another one of those one-dimensional games for Luck.

Broncos at Raiders

This is the big one this week. Since Sunday Night Football became the premiere prime-time game in the NFL in 2006, the Raiders have appeared on it just one time: a completely forgettable 13-3 loss in Denver over 10 years ago. You know things are moving in the right direction if Oakland is hosting Denver in a battle for first place in the tough AFC West. This is a huge statement game for Jack Del Rio’s team. So far, the Raiders have got by weak competition, often on the road (5-0), but have faltered at home to the only two contenders they have faced (Atlanta and Chiefs). That’s not a good sign for a schedule that gets much tougher starting this week. Oakland needs to show something here, because it’s first real AFC West test this season (KC) went poorly. The Broncos are a similar team with an even better defense.

On offense, Oakland has been good in the passing game with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, but I don’t think this is a great matchup for the three, even if Aqib Talib isn’t 100% or playing. Denver has the secondary to match up with those outside receivers. Seth Roberts isn’t a bad #3 slot guy, but most of this passing game runs through those two wideouts. Cooper really struggled last year with Denver, and we know Carr has yet to have a really good game in four tries against this defense that has just terrorized some really good QBs this year.

As for Carr specifically, I don’t think he’s playing any better this year than the likes of Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger. The main difference between him and most of those guys is that he’s played an easier schedule, his team’s had better health, and he has one of the best offensive lines in the league. Denver has the talent to get through that line and put Carr under pressure. He has some gunslinger in him, so he’ll force plays from time to time and give the defense turnover opportunities. I think Carr’s first eight games last year were better than his first eight this season, and we know about his decline last year when the schedule got tougher. He needs to avoid doing that again this year so Oakland can definitely make the playoffs instead of piss away a 6-2 start. Fortunately, the AFC seems weak enough for the Raiders to at least be a wild-card team, but I honestly believe Denver and KC are better teams at this point.

The Broncos just need to stick with their brand of great defense and to not screw things up on offense/ST. Unfortunately, the offense has tried screwing things up such as the three turnovers against San Diego last week that made that a game late. This is a huge game for Trevor Siemian too, as he likes to risk some dangerous plays each week as well. If he can just play within himself, then I think Denver scores just enough for the big road win. Oakland beat the Broncos last year in Denver thanks to a dominant performance from Khalil Mack (5 sacks), which we really haven’t been getting this year. They also got their GWD after Emmanuel Sanders muffed a punt at the 11-yard line. Brandon McManus later missed a game-tying field goal in the 15-12 loss. For a team that plays so many games tightly, these mistakes are almost impossible to overcome.

I don’t see a big rushing night coming from Oakland, so it will be on Carr’s shoulders to produce against this defense. If he does so, then great, but if not, then that stigma of not being able to beat the good teams is still heavily weighing on this team and its young quarterback. This game is very important for Oakland to show that it is indeed another new year, and that the AFC isn’t just about the Patriots, Broncos and Steelers again.

(Yes, I just shafted the AFC South winner, but why wouldn’t I?)

2016 Week 9 Predictions

Felt good about the Falcons on Thursday, and they came through in a big way on a short week against a divisional foe.

Winners in bold:

  • Cowboys at Browns
  • Jets at Dolphins
  • Steelers at Ravens
  • Eagles at Giants
  • Jaguars at Chiefs
  • Lions at Vikings
  • Panthers at Rams
  • Saints at 49ers
  • Colts at Packers
  • Titans at Chargers
  • Broncos at Raiders
  • Bills at Seahawks

Definitely put the Chiefs on upset alert with so many key guys out, but this is the Jaguars. While this may not be a game for Blake “The Garbage Man” Bortles to do what he does best, I can see a failed 4QC/GWD attempt from the Jags that I’ll have to write about for Tuesday. Yay, fun.

  • Week 1: 7-9
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-7
  • Week 5: 7-7
  • Week 6: 12-3
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 7-6
  • Season: 69-51

Another bloody tie. I gave myself the loss again only because I said the AFC team (Bengals) would win, while the NFC team (Redskins) actually should have won. Damn kickers.

NFL Week 9 Predictions: Records for Peyton Manning and NFC Showdown

A solid schedule this week, so here are some thoughts on the three games I’m most focused on.

Packers at Panthers

Regardless of last week’s interesting matchup in Denver, this was always the more important game since it’s for first place in the NFC. This is probably the toughest two-game stretch for Green Bay in the Aaron Rodgers era. They get back-to-back road games against the top 2 pass defenses. Rodgers’ last six games against top 5 pass defenses have not gone well. As I mentioned last week, Green Bay is 1-9 on the road against playoff teams since 2012. That’s probably 1-10 given the Broncos are now 7-0.

Jonathan Stewart could have a big day against a subpar Green Bay run defense. He’ll have to really, because I don’t see this passing game getting on track this week with Cam Newton and his receivers. Carolina needs to run Newton a lot and be the more physical team. If you punch Green Bay in the mouth early, you’re usually in good shape.

Randall Cobb is starting to show a bit of the “Peerless Price Effect” as he’s not suited to be a star No. 1 WR. Jordy Nelson was, and Cobb is definitely not the same caliber of player. Carolina has to like the matchup with Josh Norman there, so it really is on James Jones to have a big game. I don’t think much of Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery or Richard Rodgers at this point as big producers, and the running game isn’t up to par this season.

So why would I still pick Green Bay? 

I think the Packers walked into Denver as a confident favorite against an unfamiliar opponent and had their weaknesses exposed against a great defense and an offense that’s starting to put things together. I don’t think Carolina, coming off an emotional Monday night win, is as lethal on either side of the ball and the Packers will use Sunday night as a wake-up call. Rodgers will be more decisive with the ball and maybe scramble more. Carolina won’t be able to cover the receivers as well as Denver’s secondary did. I saw open receivers galore on Monday night, but Andrew Luck made some really horrible throws and decisions. Remember, this is a Carolina defense that let Luke McCown complete 31-of-38 passes with three drops. It’s a shitty reason to pick a team, but I just can’t fathom Rodgers playing so ineffectively two weeks in a row. He’ll get more out of the offense and the defense has fewer threats to worry about offensively. Regardless of what you’re hearing, Newton is not playing anywhere near MVP level.

Neither team is really good at playing from behind, so I would imagine we’ll get a good taste early of who is going to take control of the NFC with a big win here.

Final score: Packers 23, Panthers 17

Raiders at Steelers

It’s come to the point where Steelers fans basically expect to lose to Oakland, which is just another sign that it’s one of those 8-9 win/miss the playoffs kind of seasons. It happened in 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2013.

Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is 1-4 against Oakland in his Hall of Fame career, which up until this point has seen the Raiders as probably the league’s worst team in that span. This is the best Oakland team he’ll face yet, though the optimism is largely on the offensive side of the ball. That’s why I think this can be a shootout with plenty of passing numbers. Sure, DeAngelo Williams can effectively replace a lot of what Le’Veon Bell did, but this has to be a bounce-back game for Ben, which means a lot of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller. Remember, Oakland has struggled greatly with tight ends this season. I think a 1 p.m. game at home helps Pittsburgh a bit against a West Coast team coming off a huge win. They smashed San Francisco in that situation in Week 2. Not many road triumphs on the resume for a young Derek Carr, but he’s definitely playing the best of the sophomore QBs. I hate to pick a final score this year with Pittsburgh because the defense keeps beating expectations, but I really do see a high-scoring game here. I just think Roethlisberger makes up for last week’s blunder and takes advantage of a middling defense with his weapons.

Final score: Raiders 24, Steelers 34

Broncos at Colts

I knew the NFL would schedule this game around this point since it’s about the time where Peyton Manning should break a significant record we’ve been expecting him to one day own for a long time. They did an even better job than expected, as Manning can set the all-time records for wins and passing yards in the city that drafted him into this league. Manning has thrown for at least 284 yards in about 45 percent of his games, so it’s not a given, but likely to happen. He would break the record in his 264th game — it took Brett Favre 302 games to compile 71,838 passing yards.

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

mydbygame

Denver will likely push for the record, though the Broncos have struggled for a good chunk of all three of Manning’s games with the Colts. They were largely ineffective in the second and third quarters in the 2013 game. The second half of last year’s opener was a struggle, and nearly the whole playoff game in January went poorly as I’ve detailed greatly before. But this week is a bit different. It’s not Manning’s first time back in Indy and he doesn’t have a high ankle sprain like in 2013. It’s not in prime time. It’s not a season opener when things are still new and teams are “full strength.” It’s not a playoff game where Manning is playing on a torn quad. It’s also the 2015 Denver defense taking on a 2015 Indianapolis offense that has by and large looked terrible when not trailing by multiple touchdowns this season. Pep Hamilton was a problem for the Colts, but not even a top-five problem. They fired him as a scapegoat to show some change this week, but good luck to new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinksi trying to game plan for this defense. There’s not much he can really do at this point of the season that would be different, though I guess the Colts have some factor of unpredictability on their side. I just wouldn’t trust any of it (passing to the TEs? more Frank Gore?) to work well against this defense.

Final score: Broncos 31, Colts 19

2015 Week 9 Predictions

I had the Bengals winning by double-digits on TNF. That was an easy choice.

Winners in bold:

  • Jaguars at Jets
  • Titans at Saints
  • Redskins at Patriots
  • Packers at Panthers
  • Dolphins at Bills
  • Rams at Vikings
  • Raiders at Steelers
  • Broncos at Colts
  • Falcons at 49ers
  • Giants at Buccaneers
  • Eagles at Cowboys
  • Bears at Chargers

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Season: 78-41 (.655)

NFL Week 9 Predictions: Manning vs. Brady Is Coke vs. Pepsi

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are like Coke and Pepsi, the two biggest brands in the world.

You can appreciate both for what they are, but Coke (Manning) has always been better.

That’s my opinion and nothing I’ve seen in 14 years (and even longer on the Pepsi-Coke front) has been good enough to change my mind.

They meet for the 16th time on Sunday and I have already done a game preview at FO, so I implore you to read it if you haven’t yet.

There’s no denying this is the biggest game in the AFC this regular season. It usually is. The winner has had home-field advantage over the other except for the last two years. One of these quarterbacks has had the No. 1 seed in the AFC in eight of the last 11 seasons.

MB1

Rarely does this rivalry bring out the best in each quarterback. Only about half of the games featured both quarterbacks playing very well. An even smaller number of meetings were actually decided by one of these quarterbacks.

Last year’s 34-31 overtime classic in Foxboro was a perfect example. In a 31-31 tie, these quarterbacks had a combined seven drives to put their team ahead, but neither could do so. The Patriots only won after Denver muffed a punt return at its own 15-yard line.

Manning hasn’t won in Foxboro since the 2006 game in which he played very well, but Brady threw four interceptions in his worst performance of the series. Manning’s worst game, the 2003 AFC Championship, saw him throw four interceptions, but Brady tried his hardest to match on a sloppy day.

When you look at the nine games in Foxboro, Manning-led teams are 2-7 and constantly shot themselves in the foot on every side of the ball. Sometimes it was in the most unlikely of ways. I got a copy of the first Brady-Manning game from 2001 and somehow Edgerrin James turned this low pass into a juggling interception for the Patriots:

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Remember the 2012 game with Denver? Demaryius Thomas fumbled in the red zone after a long gain. Danny Woodhead converted on the ground on a third-and-17 run. Manning lost  a fumble. In the fourth quarter, Willis McGahee single-handedly blew Denver’s comeback attempt by dropping a fourth-down pass and fumbling at the NE 11 with 3:42 to play.

The Brady-Manning game with some of the best quarterbacking from both was the 2004 season opener. In the fourth quarter, down 27-24 with 3:51 left, Edgerrin James fumbled at the 1-yard line on first down. Manning was later sacked by an unblocked Wilile McGinest and Mike Vanderjagt missed a 48-yard field goal with 19 seconds left.

Some have compared this week’s game to the 2005 meeting on Monday Night Football simply due to the alleged superiority of Manning’s team. That 2005 game was the biggest team advantage Manning’s ever had over Brady and it was a 40-21 beatdown. Both quarterbacks played at a high level, but the Colts were just too much for NE that night.

I don’t think the Broncos are that much better than the Patriots right now. It’s also not lost on me that in his five wins in the rivalry, Manning has thrown for a minimum of 321 yards and scored at least 26 points. Can he do both on Sunday? Sure, but it still feels like he’ll have to do both if Denver’s going to win. The teams aren’t uneven enough to expect he can get by with an average day.

If the game was in Denver it would probably be a comfortable win for the home team, but on Halloween weekend, I know Foxboro has been a house of horrors for Manning teams and Belichick will have Rob Gronkowski and Darrelle Revis at his disposal this time around.

Final prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 24

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I cautiously picked the Saints on TNF, but they delivered on the road.

Winners in bold:

  • Cardinals at Cowboys
  • Redskins at Vikings
  • Chargers at Dolphins
  • Jets at Chiefs
  • Eagles at Texans
  • Jaguars at Bengals
  • Buccaneers at Browns
  • Rams at 49ers
  • Broncos at Patriots
  • Raiders at Seahawks
  • Ravens at Steelers
  • Colts at Giants

Whether it’s ailing Tony Romo or old-but-inexperienced Brandon Weeden, I’ve been big on Arizona this week. This should be the game where DeMarco Murray’s 100-yard game streak ends, but I get the feeling he’ll be force-fed the ball (30 carries if possible) because of the quarterback situation. But I like the aggressive Cardinals on the road in another tight one.

Speaking of tight ones, the Steelers and Ravens should get back to a usual 3-point outcome this week. I think the big hit Ben Roethlisberger suffered at the start of the Week 2 game threw him off that night and the Steelers are playing much better now. I like them to win 23-20 here. Roethlisberger’s stats might be cut in half after last week, but 260 yards and 3 TD sounds more than adequate against Baltimore without Jimmy Smith at CB.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Total: 76-44-1

NFL Week 9 Predictions

Last week was about as bad as expected when it came to the quality of games. At least the Cowboys and Lions delivered a regular-season classic for us. This week, I expect things to be a little better, but I’m not sure where the game of the week will come from.

Falcons at Panthers – Yes, Carolina’s won three straight and by a margin of 96-38, but slow the hype train down. It was only the Vikings, Rams and Buccaneers — three teams who will be fortunate to get another win in 2013. It wouldn’t shock me if the Falcons won this game, though I’m just about done with picking Atlanta to do anything this season. The defense is rotten and the losses on offense have been too much to overcome.

Chiefs at Bills – I felt good about putting the Chiefs on upset alert for this one, but with Jeff Tuel likely making his first start in place of Thad Lewis, it should be another typical Chiefs game: a close win over a lousy opponent/QB.

Saints at jets – The Ryan Bowl. It wouldn’t shock me if the Jets pull this one out, but I think the trend of alternating wins and losses comes to an end here. Reminder: the Jets lost last week, in case you forgot when Andy Dalton looked great. If that QB can throw five touchdowns against this defense, what can Drew Brees do?

Steelers at Patriots – Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by 13+ points. Personally, this is the first time I’ll watch this matchup and really not even care what the Steelers do. This used to be a huge AFC game with playoff implications. The last six times these teams have met, one of them went to the Super Bowl that season. That’s not likely to continue in 2013.

Colts at Texans – Check out my preview for this one here. It has GOTW potential, but frankly any outcome wouldn’t surprise me in a divisional game between teams coming off the bye. I’m not sure I watched the Colts play a live football game without Reggie Wayne since the 1995 AFC Championship in Pittsburgh.

2013 NFL Week 9 Predictions

Beaten by a safety in overtime. I knew picking Cincinnati was a risk, but I didn’t expect that type of finish. So that’s the first TNF mistake of the season.

Winners in bold:

  • Vikings at Cowboys
  • Falcons at Panthers
  • Chiefs at Bills
  • Chargers at Redskins
  • Saints at Jets
  • Titans at Rams
  • Buccaneers at Seahawks
  • Eagles at Raiders
  • Ravens at Browns
  • Steelers at Patriots
  • Colts at Texans
  • Bears at Packers

Season results:

  • Week 1: 11-5
  • Week 2: 12-4
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 9-6
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 11-4
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-3
  • Season: 80-40

NFL Week 9 Predictions, Adjusted 4QC Records and Writing Recap

Only five articles this week, but that just means a bonanza next week when we officially hit the midpoint of the NFL’s regular season.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 8: Eli Manning Out-Clutches Tony Romo in Dallas – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Stat of the week: Eli Manning has produced just as many 4QC/GWD (3) in new Cowboys Stadium as Tony Romo. Only problem is Manning’s played there four times compared to 23 starts for Romo. Also: Cam Newton bounces around from Superman to Scam in Chicago, Matthew Stafford comes up big again, and Andrew Luck gets to 3 game-winning drives in just seven games. We also find that Betty White scores more in Cleveland than Philip Rivers.

Breaking Down What Went Wrong with Redskins’ Receivers in Loss to Steelers – Bleacher Report

Just how many passes did the Redskins drop in Pittsburgh on Sunday? Depends on which site you look at. I went through every incompletion and offered a look at each. Robert Griffin III’s stats were definitely impacted, but most of the plays weren’t as harmful to Washington’s cause as you might have expected.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 8 at Tennessee Titans – Colts Authority

Oh we have a logo now, and Andrew Luck has his second comeback and third GWD already with his best game of the season. Despite being pressured so frequently, Luck was very efficient and was at his best late in the game: 10/12 for 115 yards, TD and both incompletions were dropped. The Colts had a different gameplan this week, and I have the data to back it up.

The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Week 9 Predictions – Bleacher Report

This week we look at the 37 teams to start 7-0 since 1940. Tony Romo is the only QB in NFL history to defeat two undefeated teams who were 7-0 or better (9-0 Colts in 2006, 13-0 Saints in 2009). When Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger meet on Sunday, it will only be the 9th time a pair of quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings face each other (as active owners of 2+ rings). It is the 7th time the Steelers are involved in such a game, and the third year in a row for Roethlisberger. We also have a potential first meeting of rookies with winning records this late into the season with Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill. Finally, some perspective on how great Drew Brees has been in the Superdome in prime time, and how the Eagles and Michael Vick will try and save their season with a road win.

Best and Worst Quarterback Records In the Clutch Adjusted for Strength of Schedule – Cold, Hard Football Facts

I compiled over 800 fourth-quarter comeback opportunities for 25 active starting quarterbacks and broke them down for strength of schedule (SOS), looking at strength of victory, and the records against teams .500 or better and teams with a losing record. Some individual notes on all 25 quarterbacks included. Definitely some interesting results.

2012 NFL Week 9 Predictions

Originally I picked Atlanta to go 8-0, but doesn’t it seem like the stars are aligning for a Dallas upset? The Falcons are hardly dominant, even though they are hard to beat in that dome. The Cowboys have upset two undefeated teams in recent years, have a good  matchup here, and let’s not forget Tony Romo is Mr. November with a 19-2 record in the month. After all the criticism this week for the loss to the Giants, this is actually the perfect opportunity for the Cowboys to show up and deliver a big win.

Or, they will fall flat on their faces as the Falcons’ undefeated march continues. But I think I’m going to roll the dice and go with the upset.

Winners in bold:

  • Broncos at Bengals
  • Ravens at Browns
  • Cardinals at Packers
  • Bills at Texans
  • Dolphins at Colts
  • Lions at Jaguars
  • Bears at Titans
  • Panthers at Redskins
  • Buccaneers at Raiders
  • Vikings at Seahawks
  • Steelers at Giants
  • Cowboys at Falcons
  • Eagles at Saints

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Week 5: 10-4
  • Week 6: 5-9
  • Week 7: 12-1
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Season: 74-44