NFL Week 8 Predictions: Mid-Tier Edition

I see Week 8 with a lot of mid-level matchups and an appropriate main event in Philadelphia-Dallas on Sunday night. Of course, the Bears somehow got another stinker scheduled in prime time to end the week. But here are my thoughts on some of the games that should be helpful in judging where these teams are at the almost halfway point of the season.

Redskins vs. Bengals

Seriously, back-to-back London games at 9:30 a.m.? No thanks again, as I’ll just wait for the fourth quarter to see if Kirk Cousins can avoid the big mistake or not. I thought when the Bengals were down big in Dallas that even with a likely 2-4 start, the playoffs were not in doubt with the schedule lightening up as well as a very soft AFC (more on that later this week). Tyler Eifert is back at tight end, and Jeremy Hill had some big runs last week. Of course, it was the Browns, but the Redskins have been a poor run defense too, and they have some health issues in the secondary right now. That’s a bad recipe for defending A.J. Green, but this Cincinnati offense can be about more than just Green now. I like the AFC team here.

Chiefs at Colts

If this is half as good as the 2013 wild-card game…But the Chiefs have been so inconsistent this year (32nd in DVOA variance). The Colts (5th in variance) have been a pillar of consistency: they score and allow at least 20 points in every game, and Andrew Luck has had the ball in his hands late with a chance to lead his team on a GWD. He’s come through four times, but the defense wasted the Week 1 effort against Detroit. I think Spencer Ware should have a field day against the Indy defense, but wouldn’t expect a huge performance from Alex Smith. Luck should have a few more weapons back this week, but he’ll need to avoid going to the Marcus Peters well too many times. Peters can make him pay on a pick-six, but with Donte Moncrief and Philip Dorsett back, Luck shouldn’t have to force passes to T.Y. Hilton. Generally, I think Luck has played very well this season, but he’ll need to be on point in this one. My gut tells me KC, and I usually have a great gut for Colts games, but I still think I have to trust the Colts at home this week. Arrowhead? I’d say prepare for one of their blowout losses from 2012-2015, but I think they pull this one out.

Lions at Texans

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I expect Brock Osweiler to have a really solid game due to how terrible the Detroit pass defense is. He’s also at home, where things have gone much better this year than the difficult road trips to New England, Minnesota and Denver. That has to be the toughest road schedule in the league so far. That’s not to say Osweiler didn’t play like hot garbage, but as we saw against Chicago and late in the Colts game, he can still come through against a crap defense. That’s what Detroit has right now, and it will be on Matthew Stafford to have an exceptional road performance for Detroit to pull off the win.

Patriots at Bills

One of the dumbest things any team did this year was Buffalo’s waffling on playing Shady McCoy last week in Miami. Just let him rest with the hamstring issue and turn the ball over to Mike Gillislee. Instead they tried to play both, and it was just a mess after Miami’s front seven ate the Bills alive. Now McCoy is unlikely to play in what is essentially the biggest game of the season for the Bills: a chance to sweep the Pats and become a factor in the AFC. So poorly managed. Tyrod Taylor is down receiving weapons in what was already a limited passing game. I expect a far different outcome than the 16-0 shutout win that Buffalo got with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for New England. Tom Brady was supposed to annihilate Pittsburgh through the air last week, but it’s more likely to come here in Buffalo.

Seahawks at Saints

Injury concerns are legit for Seattle again with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. You never want to be down key defensive starters in the Superdome against Drew Brees. Russell Wilson seems to get a new injury every week — I had no idea about the pectoral issue when I wrote Tuesday’s fantasy article about stacking him with Jimmy Graham. I still think the potential for a big day is there since this is the Saints defense, and Graham will want to show up his old team, but the injuries definitely are a concern. Wilson has 22 runs for 33 yards this season. He’s clearly had to change his playing style due to the leg injuries and throw from the pocket more, but it hasn’t been as effective. Again, at least this is a putrid defense and likely not one Wilson will need his legs against often. He can beat the Saints from the pocket, but I wouldn’t trust Seattle here if the game becomes a shootout.

Chargers at Broncos

I think this game can look a lot different from the recent TNF matchup, won by San Diego. The Broncos are now the home team, Gary Kubiak is going to be coaching this one, and Trevor Siemian is healthier. C.J. Anderson is out, but I think Devontae Booker fills in well at RB. Denver’s defense should be strong again as it was for much of the last meeting. Philip Rivers hasn’t had a good go of things against this Wade Phillips-coached D yet, and I expect that to be the difference this week.

Packers at Falcons

The Falcons need to stop the bleeding here. I think a big game for Julio Jones is in store, and the Falcons could have better rushing success against Green Bay than anyone not named Dallas this season. Matt Ryan needs to atone for the late interception at home last week. While the Falcons have allowed six game-winning drives in their last 16 games, we are talking about Green Bay here. If the Packers don’t start well, I wouldn’t expect a comeback win. I still think the offense was struggling against Chicago despite the odd stat line from Aaron Rodgers, but you could clearly see Chicago’s defense was worn out in the second half from having to defend so many passes and not getting any help from the offense. Atlanta’s offense will help the defense at home here. While I think getting creative with Ty Montgomery is good for Green Bay, I don’t think his small average gains are going to be enough here, nor do I expect Davante Adams to star in back-to-back games.

Eagles at Cowboys

This one could have really cranked up the drama if Tony Romo was making his season debut, but alas it’s two rookie quarterbacks. Dak Prescott has clearly been better than Carson Wentz. The Cowboys certainly run the ball better than the Eagles, and they throw it better too. I really like Ezekiel Elliott coming off a bye week behind that offensive line. The Eagles had a horrific run defense performance against Washington a few weeks ago, and even made Minnesota’s impotent attack look competent last week. I’ll take the Cowboys here.

2016 Week 8 Predictions

Starting to get a better hang of things this season. I had the Titans without any hesitation on Thursday night, and they blew the doors off the hopeless Jaguars.

Winners in bold:

  • Redskins at Bengals
  • Chiefs at Colts
  • Lions at Texans
  • Patriots at Bills
  • Jets at Browns
  • Cardinals at Panthers
  • Raiders at Buccaneers
  • Seahawks at Saints
  • Chargers at Broncos
  • Packers at Falcons
  • Eagles at Cowboys
  • Vikings at Bears
  • Week 1: 7-9
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-7
  • Week 5: 7-7
  • Week 6: 12-3
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Season: 62-45

I would normally give myself a tie for the Seattle-Arizona game, because if those teams don’t have to take a loss, why the hell should I after losing hours of my time to not see a winner? But since I said last week that I liked Seattle by 8 points, or more than they scored in five quarters, I’ll take the loss here.

NFL Week 8 Predictions: The Undefeated Teams

I was going to save this space for a rant about the bunk that is “does more with less,” but we have some pretty good games worth talking about this week instead.

Packers at Broncos

I thought about doing a formal preview for this game, but there’s just not enough history between the two given they’re in different conferences. You also don’t want to get too wrapped up in the numbers after just six games, which is what I’m probably about to do next.

Clearly, this is a step up in competition for both teams, who both had a bye week to prepare. Green Bay’s offense hasn’t seen a defense like Denver’s. Denver’s defense hasn’t seen an offense like Green Bay’s. I’m not going to make the mistake I made in previewing Super Bowl 48 where I thought the matchup of the lesser unit of each team (DEN D, SEA O) would be the deciding factor. Let’s stick with the strength vs. strength deciding how this game will play out.

These teams actually rank first (GB) and second (DEN) in points allowed with just one point separating them. However, Green Bay ranks seventh in Pts/Dr and 22nd in Yds/Dr. That’s a bit odd, but it’s possible because the Packers allow the third-fewest points per red zone trip. Denver’s offense has struggled in the red zone this season, ranked 30th. Denver may need to hit some big plays or take advantage of some great field position to crack this defense in the red zone. That’s how Philip Rivers turned a 500-yard passing game into just 20 points in GB. They tighten up down there. Surprisingly, the Packers go three-and-out on offense more than just five teams. Unless Aaron Rodgers takes advantage of Denver’s aggressiveness with a ton of hard counts to draw offsides and free plays, I think it’s going to be very hard for Green Bay to rack up points in this one.

Denver’s defense has pretty much shut down every offense its played so far. Only Minnesota was able to crack 20 points, and that included some good field position off of Manning interceptions and a big run by Adrian Peterson on fourth down. Green Bay probably needs more than 20 to win in Denver, but not a lot more. The Packers have been fairly mortal on offense in the last three games. Eddie Lacy hasn’t had a great season by any means. Rodgers doesn’t have the same vertical prowess without Jordy Nelson, and he hasn’t even tried to replace that part of the offense with his other receivers. This passing game is more reliant on YAC. Rodgers is scrambling more than he ever has this season, so he could be a problem for an aggressive Denver defense when he leaves the pocket. Shane Ray is out, but DeMarcus Ware should return to action. The Broncos will need Ware and Von Miller to provide good pressure in this one, but I really do think Rodgers will use his legs a lot if the Denver secondary is doing its job in coverage against the receivers. If Rodgers is holding onto the ball, then Denver will have a good chance to add on to its high sack total (26 in six games).

Denver’s offense has been a mess for various reasons this season. Some of those things are not fixable, because it’s not like they can find a good tight end or experienced slot WR in Week 8. They have to tough it out with what they have, but there’s enough here to be playing much better than they have. I recall an old NFL Films clip of Mike Holmgren saying “He’s gotta know he’s fucking up out there” in reference to a young Brett Favre. Gary Kubiak might be saying the same thing about an old Peyton Manning this year, who has 10 interceptions. Clearly that part can’t continue, and I don’t think it will since so many of the plays are mental and situational more than they are physical problems. Cutting down the picks is one step forward. Another is giving more carries to Ronnie Hillman, who has clearly outplayed C.J. Anderson this season. Demaryius Thomas has to stop dropping big passes, and his track record suggests that should also happen. This offense is close to putting it together, but keeps shooting itself in the foot with mistakes. I expect a sharper performance at home after some time to regroup against a Green Bay defense that you can definitely move the ball against. We’ve seen some productive games on the ground and through the air against them already.

Green Bay has not excelled in this type of environment. Since 2012, the Packers are 1-9 in road games against playoff teams. In case you were wondering, Rodgers started all 10 games as none of those were when he missed time in 2013 (broken collarbone). At 6-0, Denver looks destined for a playoff spot. However, the lone win in that stretch for GB was in Houston in 2012 against a team coached by Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips. Rodgers threw six touchdowns on Sunday Night Football. He’ll be fortunate to get to half that total in this one, but at least that is doable for him. I don’t think the Broncos have played great offensive competition so far, though the reason I like them is because they’re at home. Green Bay’s offense just isn’t that lethal on the road, where they’ve only played twice so far. Unlike last year when the Broncos were so dominant early in the season thanks to playing five of their first seven games at home, this year’s team has been on the road for four of the first six games, including four of the last five. Mile High is always a tough place to win and I think we get a few more points out of this one than expected, but I see Denver closing in the end on defense again.

Final score: Broncos 28, Packers 20

Bengals at Steelers

Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 5-7 in Pittsburgh and just 2-11 at home against the Steelers. It’s one of those weird splits, but I truly do believe the Bengals get up for these games in Pittsburgh. They have enough motivation for this one to continue their 6-0 start and silence the return of Ben Roethlisberger by dropping the Steelers to 4-4. That wouldn’t lock up the AFC North, but it would damn near come close to doing so on the first day of November.

I think the Steelers have the better offense when everyone’s healthy, which looks to be the case for the first time since the end of last season. However, the Bengals have the better defense, and their offense is humming along very well this year. Andy Dalton has yet to have a bad game and he had his best game against the Steelers yet in Week 14 last season. I think his receivers have very favorable matchups against a defense that will be missing Stephon Tuitt and Will Allen. Pittsburgh’s defense has certainly exceeded expectations, only surrendering more than 23 points to the Patriots. However, I think the Bengals are the best offense the Steelers have seen since the Patriots. Dalton is protected well behind a line that has only allowed six sacks and he gets rid of the ball quickly. Tyler Eifert is giving this offense a new dimension down the seam and in the red zone that it’s lacked in recent seasons. That is somewhere I see the Steelers struggling to defend here, especially with health issues in the secondary. A.J. Green might feast here too.

I never ever like picking the Bengals in a big game, but I just feel like they’re the more complete team, coming off a bye, and they are playing better than the Steelers have this season. They should win. I know I’ve also seen enough games where Roethlisberger has returned form injury and looked rusty. You can’t look rusty when Geno Atkins and company are rushing, and this is the first game Roethlisberger will start with Alejandro Villanueva as his left tackle. He was beat by Tamba Hali for two big sacks in the fourth quarter last week. Sure, Antonio Brown should get back on track, Heath Miller won’t be a ghost again and Martavis Bryant is always a big-play threat, but no one has cracked 24 points on the Bengals yet this season. I think that continues here and they get another quality win.

Final score: Bengals 29, Steelers 22

Colts at Panthers

Maybe I’m just doing a better job of avoiding it, but I’m glad this wasn’t the week where we pretend Cam Newton has always been better than Andrew Luck based on the last two months. We have several seasons to look at and see that Luck is clearly a superior player who doesn’t need as much around him to succeed. This year, he has yet another flawed roster around him despite the offseason additions. The major difference is he’s playing the worst football of his career, and it’s showing in the results for both his team’s record and his statistics. The team’s really in no worse shape than it was from 2012-14, but the difference was Luck played at a level high enough to overcome those flaws. Is it injury? That’s always my first thought when a very good player is playing poorly, and Luck has missed two games with a shoulder injury. Something’s not right, and I don’t expect it to get right against a tough Carolina team.

Simply put, Cam Newton is playing at nowhere near a MVP level, but I’m sure we can focus on that ridiculousness another week. As the 2015 Colts should show, just having “names” around you at the skill positions means nothing for a QB if you’re not playing well yourself. You still have to make the plays. The Colts have been one of the worst offenses in the league, but they have a fighting chance in this one just because the Panthers aren’t good enough to drop one of those 35-45 point games on them. The Panthers are the more physical team and that’s a huge problem, but I like the Colts defense enough in this one to slow them down and keep the game at least manageable for Luck to pull out a GWD. However, I don’t expect it to happen on Monday night. If they want to shut T.Y. Hilton down with Josh Norman, then go ahead, because in theory Donte Moncrief, Andre Johnson and the very quiet tight ends should have matchup advantages. But hell, has this not been the case each week this season for the Colts? The pieces seem to be there, but the results are not.

And it all starts with how the quarterback is playing.

Final score: Colts 16, Panthers 24

2015 Week 8 Predictions

I had the Patriots winning 31-17 on TNF, and they actually spanked Miami 36-7. OK.

Winners in bold

  • Lions at Chiefs
  • Chargers at Ravens
  • Cardinals at Browns
  • 49ers at Rams
  • Titans at Texans
  • Bengals at Steelers
  • Buccaneers at Falcons
  • Vikings at Bears
  • Giants at Saints
  • Jets at Raiders
  • Seahawks at Cowboys
  • Packers at Broncos
  • Colts at Panthers

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Season: 68-37 (.648)

NFL Week 8 Predictions: Saints in Primetime and Losing My Fandom

The NFL’s Week 8 schedule is pretty solid, so here are some thoughts on a few key games.

Packers at Saints: Prime-time Advantage?

I’ve always been better at predicting the AFC than the NFC, but the 2014 Saints have especially let me down this year. I had this team pegged for a first-round bye with an improved defense and Drew Brees finally winning his first MVP. Instead the Saints are 2-4, Rob Ryan’s defense is terrible and Brees has made some really poor throws in crucial spots. The Saints are also 0-3 at upholding one-score leads in the fourth quarter.

You might think Sunday’s game with Green Bay is a must win, but the whole NFC South has been a huge letdown this season. Look at how bad the Carolina defense has regressed. The Falcons were supposed to be improved, but look arguably worse than last year in recent weeks. Tampa Bay has already had two of the worst performances in recent time by an NFL team. At this rate the division will have a 7-9 winner stealing a playoff game (at home even) from a more deserving club. Hell, it might even come at the expense of the Seahawks.

If the Saints are going to climb back into things, they’ll do it with a statement win at home over a hot Packers team. In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Saints, and especially Brees, have been deadly in prime-time games in the Superdome:

BreesSD

That’s special stuff. The Saints are great at home in general, but some of their best games have come under the bright lights.

I expect Brees to have another fine day, but I don’t expect the Saints to stop the Packers enough when Aaron Rodgers has the ball.

Final prediction:  Packers 38, Saints 31

Bears at Patriots: Upset Alert?

I can’t figure out the 2014 Bears either. They’re 0-3 at home and aren’t scoring enough points despite one of the best supporting casts in the league and a coach, Marc Trestman, I want to believe is the right guy for the job. After last week’s loss to Miami, I find it hard to pick Chicago many more times this year. Heading to New England, I really don’t see a win, but let’s play the ebb-and-flow game.

The Bears just had a miserable loss and there’s some tension in the locker room apparently with Brandon Marshall mouthing off last week. Brian Urlacher has criticized Jay Cutler this week by saying he’s only elite in salary, which is a very true statement. The Bears aren’t in a good spot now, but I believe in talented teams turning things around. This isn’t asking for JaMarcus Russell to suddenly play well on a rotten Oakland team. I’m just looking for Cutler, Marshall, Jeffery, Forte and Bennett to score 24+ points on a New England defense missing the likes of Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones. Let’s not forget the Patriots have barely squeaked by the Raiders and Jets at home this year. This team isn’t dominant. Chicago has the weapons to make this a high-scoring game and if the Bears can win the turnover battle, I think they’ll win the game.

But it’s still Jay Cutler and that’s why I expect multiple interceptions in Foxboro and a 3-5 record for the Bears. But it would be so New England to have a shocking home loss to be followed up with a win over the best team in the league next week (Denver).

Final prediction: Bears 20, Patriots 27

Colts at Steelers: Who Do I Really Like?

The Colts and Steelers are meeting for just the fifth time since the 2003 season. It was actually during their 2002 meeting, a 28-10 Pittsburgh win, that I started to appreciate the Colts with Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy. I guess I had enough of the Kordell Stewart  “run, run, incomplete pass, punt” offense and was drawn to Manning’s passing and no-huddle offense approach. So you might think I’m conflicted with which team to root for this weekend. That’s been true in the past, especially in the 2005 playoffs — one of the toughest days of my football-viewing life — and the 2008 meeting.

But on Sunday, I frankly don’t care who wins the game. You can say I’m outgrowing my fandom, and the consistent stream of .500 results from the Steelers has done a good job of accelerating that. I’m not going to drop the line of “I have 32 favorite teams now because I’m a writer”, because that’s a bunch of bullshit. But really, I don’t care who wins this one. I just want to see a good game and I think this can be one with both teams scoring in the 20’s.

These teams have changed quite a bit since the 2011 meeting, which I only bring up because it was the night Curtis Painter almost beat the Steelers and Jonathan Scott tried to block Dwight Freeney with his ass.

It didn’t work out on Monday, but I think this is the first time I’m picking against the Steelers in back-to-back home games. Indianapolis is better on both sides of the ball and has been playing better coming into this game. I expect the Colts will have a good day offensively as long as they control their turnovers. The real matchup is the Pittsburgh offense against Indianapolis’ surprisingly good defense. Two areas I see as a concern are handling the Colts’ blitz on third down and throwing deep. They don’t have Robert Mathis so they’re being really creative with sending guys from anywhere to get pressure, and it’s been working. The Steelers haven’t protected Ben Roethlisberger well (statement pasted from a clipboard) and this could be a game where he takes 5+ sacks (also from a clipboard). Ben’s deep passing has been lacking the last few weeks in regards to his sideline throws. He’s not keeping them in bounds. He did hit a nice one down the seam to Martavis Bryant on Monday, but I think he’s going to have a hard time on those throws against Indy’s cornerbacks, who are playing very well right now.

Final prediction: Colts 27, Steelers 23

NFL Week 8 Predictions

I had Denver on TNF, but again I would have been screwed on the point spread. That’s the first time in 15 meetings Peyton Manning has beat the Chargers by more than 11 points, and the first time he’s beat them by more than 8 points without a defensive touchdown.

Winners in bold:

  • Lions at Falcons
  • Dolphins at Jaguars
  • Ravens at Bengals
  • Vikings at Buccaneers
  • Seahawks at Panthers
  • Bills at Jets
  • Bears at Patriots
  • Rams at Chiefs
  • Texans at Titans
  • Eagles at Cardinals
  • Colts at Steelers
  • Raiders at Browns
  • Packers at Saints
  • Redskins at Cowboys

Really tough call with Vikings-Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater definitely had an easy time with a bad defense (ATL) and struggled with the good ones (DET/BUF). The Bucs are a rotten one, but I’m leaning on home-field, bye week improvements and a big game from Gerald McCoy here. I also think Mike Glennon is solid. It’s the defense that’s the bigger problem, which is the opposite of what you should have expected in Tampa Bay this season.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Total: 66-39-1

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Notice anything odd about the NFL’s Week 8 schedule? If Thursday’s stinker was any indication, it’s going to be a poor week. It’s literally the worst slate of games I have seen since covering the league on a weekly basis in 2011, and that’s not hyperbole. On paper, does it get any better than Dallas at Detroit? I rest my case.

Some have said the NFL does not like to compete with the World Series, which is going on now in case you didn’t notice. Yet is anyone going to deny that even a terrible collection of NFL games will kick the World Series’ ass in ratings?

“Hell, we’ll put six teams on a bye week, send the Jaguars to London to face the 49ers, put the Rams out to slaughter against Seattle, and even start the week with Greg Schiano in prime time and people will still eat it up.”

The most riveting baseball series in years would still struggle to beat out a host of prime-time games featuring the dreadful 2013 Minnesota Vikings, and don’t worry, the latter is coming. After Josh Freeman’s 33-incompletion night, we get the Vikings again facing the Packers on Sunday. After a trip to Dallas in what is hopefully a low-traffic Heath Evans time slot on FOX, the Vikings return to the big stage with a Thursday night home game against the Redskins in Week 10. Three prime-time games in four weeks. Can’t wait.

Yet in the NFL, where inconsistency thrives, we probably will get a few unexpectedly great games this week. But for most of us, even the worst games are still preferable to watching baseball.

2013 NFL Week 8 Predictions

We’ll see what happens next week with a real challenge, but the undefeated run continues on TNF with a pick of Carolina.

Winners in bold:

  • Cowboys at Lions
  • Dolphins at Patriots
  • Browns at Chiefs
  • Bills at Saints
  • Giants at Eagles
  • 49ers at Jaguars
  • Jets at Bengals
  • Steelers at Raiders
  • Redskins at Broncos
  • Falcons at Cardinals
  • Packers at Vikings
  • Seahawks at Rams

Season results:

  • Week 1: 11-5
  • Week 2: 12-4
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 9-6
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 11-4
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Season: 70-37

NFL Week 8 Predictions, Scam Newton and Writing Recap

It’s nearly November and most NFL teams are still an inconsistent mess, which makes it hard for predictions, but good for weekly coverage.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 7: Old vs. New, Eli Manning Upstages RGIII – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Random fact: all six quarterbacks to lead a game-winning drive this week are over the age of 30, which hasn’t happened since at least 1995. Yep. Another record for Eli Manning, CBS changes Tom Brady’s stats a week after I pointed out their interesting Week 6 graphic, and a list of Matt Hasselbeck’s game-winning/game-tying TD passes, which oddly slant heavily towards his brief time in Tennessee.

Eli Manning Has New York Giants Soaring Under the Radar Again – Bleacher Report

I rarely write a puff piece, but if I do, it’s going to have a lot of interesting data. This is on Eli Manning and the New York Giants, making note of how they have started 5-2 or better for nine straight seasons, tying the NFL record set by Dallas (1975-83).

I also took a step in the direction of quantifying the difficulty associated with fourth quarter comebacks by looking at Eli Manning’s 23 comeback wins and using win probability. Expect more on this in the future.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 7 vs. Cleveland Browns – Colts Authority

Luck had a career-low 35 drop backs this week, but the Colts went into a shell again after taking a 17-13 lead in the third quarter. Find out why Luck needs more shotgun in his diet.

Just What Is Going On With the AFC? – NBC Sports

The 2012 season will be the year we remember the NFC regaining control of the NFL as the dominant conference. NFC teams are 19-9 against the AFC so far this year, and have won three straight Super Bowls. Find out how they’ve swung back control, and a breakdown of all 16 AFC teams into their respectful tiers of quality.

The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Week 8 Predictions – Bleacher Report

This week’s previews include a look at Dick LeBeau’s 14-1 record vs. rookie quarterbacks since 2004, how impressive Andy Reid’s 13-0 record after a bye week really is, Josh Freeman’s lost comeback magic (which he did not need on Thursday), and expecting a career day statistically from Andrew Luck in Tennessee. Also the shortest Broncos/Saints preview out there.

More Scam than Superman: Cam Newton is NFL’s Worst QB in the Clutch – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Cam Newton can at least argue he is consistent, as his stats are very similar to this point last year, as is the 1-5 record. The other constant trend is his inability to close games at a historic rate, producing a 1-12 (.077) record at fourth quarter comeback opportunities. Here are the worst records I have been able to find so far (min. 10 attempts):

You cannot pretend to be Superman if all you ever do in the face of adversity is wilt under the pressure.

2012 NFL Week 8 Predictions

Why is it so hard to trust our gut? I knew Tampa Bay had the on-field advantages, but basically picked Minnesota since they had the better record and were the home team. 0-1 to start the week, which I have a feeling won’t be pretty after going 12-1 last week.

Winners in bold:

  • Panthers at Bears
  • Chargers at Browns
  • Seahawks at Lions
  • Jaguars at Packers
  • Dolphins at Jets
  • Falcons at Eagles
  • Redskins at Steelers
  • Patriots at Rams
  • Colts at Titans
  • Raiders at Chiefs
  • Giants at Cowboys
  • Saints at Broncos
  • 49ers at Cardinals

Bah, that’s a lot of road teams. Lions, Eagles and Cardinals win at home, is what my gut says, and I’m not listening again.

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Week 5: 10-4
  • Week 6: 5-9
  • Week 7: 12-1
  • Season: 64-40