NFL Week 11 Predictions: Well, It’s Football Edition

How great was Week 10 in the NFL? I’m not just playing it up either because of the shit week that preceded it. The best games (DAL-PIT, SEA-NE) were the best games — only games with seven lead changes this season — and we had a season-high 10 games decided with a fourth-quarter score. I doubt the next seven weeks will be able to top that one.

I feel very certain that the Week 11 slate is going to pale in comparison. In fact, this might be the weakest week yet this season, with not much standing out other than the DVOA Title Match between the Eagles and Seahawks. Of course, I expect Seattle to prevail at home in that one by forcing Carson Wentz into mistakes, but that could be a tight, low-scoring affair for sure.

I think the turnaround of Tennessee’s offense has been very unexpected, and good for the league, but I also think the Colts will play better off their bye week and find a way to win yet another one against the Titans. Andrew Luck has yet to lose to that team.

Baltimore at Dallas is interesting only in the sense that how will Dak and Zeke perform against a pretty solid defense? Otherwise, it just seems like the Ravens won’t be able to score enough on the road to really make that a great game.

Buffalo at Cincinnati almost feels like a no-brainer game I’ll have to cover in Clutch Encounters on Tuesday, as a game between two evenly-matched teams this year. Might be a sneaky good fantasy game as well with the way Buffalo has been defending big plays/No. 1 WRs right now.

Vikings-Cardinals was one of my absolute favorite games to watch and write about in 2015. This year, the teams are just not as good, and I expect some pretty subpar QB play in that one.

The Rams are finally going to start Jared Goff, which should have been the case since Week 1. Not sure how two months of sitting will have made a difference, but Goff will make his debut in the 10th game of his career. I don’t expect much at all from him this week, but at least it’s something fresh to watch, even if it does reek of that Jeff Fisher 7-9 bullshit.

Packers-Redskins: I’m frankly just tired of watching Green Bay this season. Think I’ve seen them play live seven times this year, and it’s just not the same well-oiled machine we used to see on offense, and the defense has been poor with too many corners and Clay Matthews out. I think the Redskins have been getting quietly better on defense and balancing the offense with the run game, and should be able to get this one at home. Of course, for as long as I’ve been watching the NFL (post-Joe Gibbs 1.0), trusting Washington to come through in a fairly big moment (home SNF game) is asking for trouble.

And I’m definitely not all that interested to see Brock Osweiler try to play QB again on Monday night. The Texans sure have gotten a tough draw on the road schedule (NE, MIN, DEN), but at least this one is more like a neutral field in Mexico City.

I left out the Steelers-Browns until now, because you figured I would talk about that one in more detail. Yes, I absolutely think the 0-10 Browns can win this game. It would be a defining moment for the “Mike Tomlin’s team plays down to the competition” story. After all, this team struggled like hell with a 2011 Colts team that started the season 0-13. They went down 10-0 and had to win in OT against a 2012 Chiefs team that was 1-7 at the time. Tomlin has another loss to a 2-14 team in the 2014 Buccaneers at home. This would not be that shocking at all, especially if the weather gets nasty. The Steelers were not able to run the ball at all in two games against Cleveland last year. Hue Jackson knows this team very well from his experience in the division. Cody Kessler has not been great, but at least he has protected the ball, and should respond to his weird benching in the previous game. Isaiah Crowell has gone MIA in recent weeks after a good start, but that was more about game script and the opponents faced. Pittsburgh is a bad defense, and it just lost arguably its best player (Cam Heyward) for the season, which should make the run D even worse. While everyone has been able to beat the Browns, they were at least competitive in five games with 5 failed 4QC attempts. Pittsburgh isn’t anywhere near good enough to walk into this game lightly and expect a win. Ben Roethlisberger will have to play very well, and he usually does in Cleveland, but like I said, you have the potential for a one-dimensional offense here. Matchup wise, he should have a field day with Antonio Brown (Steelers are thin at WR otherwise), but if the passing game is hampered at all, then Cleveland will have a good shot in this one at home.

Pittsburgh’s season really hangs in the balance this week. A loss at Cleveland would be devastating, but there’s also a game in Indy on Thursday night. For a team that was largely considered the non-NE favorite to reach the Super Bowl, this has to be the week to get on track, or it’s over.

2016 Week 11 Predictions

I went with the Panthers on TNF, and they barely hung on in 2015 style for the win. Still a very disappointing season from that team.

Winners in bold:

  • Titans at Colts
  • Bears at Giants
  • Buccaneers at Chiefs
  • Ravens at Cowboys
  • Jaguars at Lions
  • Bills at Bengals
  • Cardinals at Vikings
  • Steelers at Browns
  • Dolphins at Rams
  • Patriots at 49ers
  • Eagles at Seahawks
  • Packers at Redskins
  • Texans at Raiders

Bloody hell, I was even going to pick the Rams, but figured this was already too many home teams for the week. Upsets to the rescue I guess.

  • Week 1: 7-9
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-7
  • Week 5: 7-7
  • Week 6: 12-3
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 7-6
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 7-7
  • Season: 84-63

NFL Week 11 Predictions

Week 11 has three games between teams with winning records, and it just so happens they are the three national games. GB-MIN gets a 4:25 start on FOX, Bengals-Cardinals on SNF and Bills-Patriots on MNF. That should make up for an inauspicious start to the week with guys like T.J. Yates, Matt Hasselbeck, Brock Osweiler, Mark Sanchez, Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert starting games. And none of those are against each other, so that’s six games compromised a bit. Is it the final week of preseason? No, sadly not. This season needs a push of the reset button, but we’re charging towards Thanksgiving with the mediocrity flag waving defiantly.

Packers at Vikings

Very interesting game here in a battle for first place in the NFC North. The schedule makers probably had no idea this would be such a challenging quarter for Green Bay, but three road games (DEN/CAR/MIN) out of four against some of the season’s stingiest defenses is a hell of a task for an offense that just isn’t that talented this year. I feel like I’ve mentioned the lack of talent about 10 times this season, so are the Vikings good enough defensively to keep the Packers down again? I think they can hold them to 21 or less. Minnesota actually has only allowed more than 20 points once this season: 23 to Denver. Mike Zimmer has had some success against Rodgers in the past. When these teams played last in Minnesota last year, the Packers won 24-21. The gap has definitely closed, even if Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t really made big strides this year. Adrian Peterson is leading the league in rushing, though keep in mind his hamstring injury this week. He needs to have a huge game, because you just don’t expect much from the passing game. Kyle Rudolph has really fallen off since he got that big contract. Mike Wallace has reverted to JAG status. Stefon Diggs had that great start and is really the best receiver this team has, but he needs his targets. As always when you play the Packers, a fast start is key, but I don’t think Minnesota is efficient enough on offense to pull away in this one.

Bengals at Cardinals

The idea that Andy Dalton excels against uncommon opponents is definitely interesting, but I think the Cardinals are a bad matchup for the Bengals. They have the secondary to prevent A.J. Green from having a huge night, and I still don’t think that highly of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. Tyler Eifert has to make up for Monday night’s poor outing with all the drops, and I think he will, but he’s not enough by himself. The running game isn’t reliable either with Jeremy Hill having a hugely disappointing season. Giovani Bernard is a better two-way threat, but he just doesn’t get the snaps in this offense. I like Arizona’s offense at home, though I would feel better if there weren’t lingering hamstring issues for John Brown and Michael Floyd. But if Adam Jones is out, still an advantage to Arizona and Carson Palmer, who is having a MVP-caliber season. The closest I’ve watched the Bengals this year were against the Steelers and Texans, and I just wasn’t impressed with either outing, especially from Dalton. They’ll score more points this week, but I don’t think it will be enough to beat the Cardinals.

Bills at Patriots

It’s hard to get excited about one of these games since the Patriots almost always beat Buffalo. A Brady pick parade is the only way Buffalo wins when the Patriots aren’t resting starters in Week 17. I like that Buffalo has its weapons healthy right now, but the New England defense is pretty sound this year. You won’t just beat them by hiding the quarterback or throwing bombs all day to Sammy Watkins. For the Patriots, I think they handle the losses of Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman by switching up Week 2’s pass-heavy gameplan. LeGarrette Blount will be the featured player on Monday night as the Patriots attack the 29th-ranked run defense.

2015 Week 11 Predictions

Last week was brutal with underdogs and road teams going 11-3. I knew as soon as I picked my boring group of winners it was going to be a messy week. Off to a good start with the Jacksonville pick on TNF, though that one could have easily gone either way too. Damn those long punt returns when you least expect them.

Winners in bold:

  • Jets at Texans
  • Colts at Falcons
  • Cowboys at Dolphins
  • Raiders at Lions
  • Buccaneers at Eagles
  • Redskins at Panthers
  • Broncos at Bears
  • Rams at Ravens
  • Chiefs at Chargers
  • Packers at Vikings
  • 49ers at Seahawks
  • Bengals at Cardinals
  • Bills at Patriots

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 4-10
  • Season: 90-56 (.616)

NFL Week 11 Predictions: 4th-and-2, Take Two

Five years ago today Bill Belichick gambled on a fourth-and-2 in Indianapolis and the rest is history.

vlcsnap-2010-11-21-05h53m40s199

It’s only fitting that tomorrow night the Patriots return to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since that classic finish in what is a crucial game for the AFC. While much has changed in five years, the Patriots still come in with a dangerous team that has opened up leads of 17, 28, 35 and 21 points on the Colts in the last four meetings in Foxboro.

That’s why I think home-field advantage is very important here and I wrote about that specifically in our preview at Football Outsiders.

For the Colts to win they must control the game with their offense: ball security, third-down conversions and touchdowns in the red zone. Andrew Luck has done a great job of spreading the ball in a high-volume, high efficiency attack that’s helped the Colts lead the league in scoring. The Colts lead the league with six wire-to-wire wins (never trailed), so they are very pass happy this year. Yet I still think this will follow the script of so many previous Pats-Colts games in that the Patriots will jump out to a big lead while capitalizing on Indy mistakes and Luck will have to lead a second-half comeback, which he of course is very capable of doing. The Colts have had 18-point comeback wins in both games following their bye week under Luck and both teams are coming off the bye for this one, which is a scheduling quirk that needs to die right away.

Luck has to bring his A-game, because if his accuracy is off the Patriots will tip balls and create turnovers. The cornerbacks will be physical with the receivers. I think T.Y. Hilton’s speed could work against Darrelle Revis, but I think Brandon Browner may lock down the older, slower Reggie Wayne. At least one of the tight ends and Ahmad Bradshaw need to have really good games for the Colts, who I think need a minimum of 35 points to win in what should be a high-scoring game, even if it’s not a traditional shootout. Luck will have to throw for 350+ again. If the Week 2 Luck (vs. Philadelphia) shows up, the Colts are toast.

The Patriots have too many advantages on the offensive side of the ball to not have a big scoring night. When Rob Gronkowksi is on like he’s been, there’s really no stopping him. The Colts’ best defender is Vontae Davis, but if he’s locked up with Brandon LaFell, the Patriots won’t have any problem with LaFell getting three catches for 30 yards, because they’ll just feed Gronkowski and Julian Edelman over the middle of the field against the linebackers and safeties. The Colts are 29th in DVOA against tight ends and 32nd against running backs, so watch out for Shane Vereen as a receiver too. I don’t think Davis can cover Gronk. I’m not even sure he can shut down Edelman based on the 2013 AFC Divisional matchup I took a quick look at here.

To beat Tom Brady is to pressure him. The Robert Mathis-less Colts couldn’t get pressure on Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger and they were shredded in those games. The Colts have to blitz to get pressure. Brady will succeed against the blitz more often than not, but the Colts still have to try because he’ll have all day to carve them up with three and four-man rushes. If you concede the Patriots are going to score a lot and you expect to score a lot too, then maybe a blitz-happy approach isn’t the dumbest plan to have for Chuck Pagano. All it takes is a few well-timed pressures to turn a drive into a punt or field goal instead of a touchdown. The Colts will need a few of those stops, particularly on third down and in the red zone.

It’s a fun matchup. We may see it again in January. Maybe I’m just dreaming, but I can see this being a game where everyone wants to crown the Patriots at halftime, but by the end of the night it’s another Luck-led comeback. Maybe this time Belichick punts on fourth-and-2 and Luck just goes the 75 yards anyway. He’s about due for a GWD. But I know better than to pick against the Patriots when they’re on a run like this and I think Gronkowski will be the difference.

Final prediction: Patriots 35, Colts 31

The Other Big Ones

We do have three other games this week between teams with at least a 6-3 record, making this a historic week in terms of the schedule.

Seahawks (6-3) at Chiefs (6-3) – Does Seattle struggle in early starts on the road? We saw them down 21-3 in St. Louis earlier this year. The Chiefs were fantastic on MNF against the Patriots in Arrowhead and have some favorable matchups here with Brandon Mebane (IR) and Bobby Wagner out. Expect a ton of rushing from both teams and even from both quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Alex Smith are also throwing short a lot this year, which is nothing new for Smith, but has been a change for Wilson. So this game could be low on possessions unless both defenses play really tough. Travis Kelce needs to be fed Andy. I’m feeling the Chiefs at home, which would hardly be the most surprising outcome of the season for either team so far.

Eagles (7-2) at Packers (6-3) – Another very important game with Green Bay currently not slotted for a postseason spot. Losing another head-to-head game to a team likely to be contending with them would be tough, but I think home-field again wins out with Aaron Rodgers playing great and Mark Sanchez likely to make some mistakes in trying to keep up. I’d trust the Eagles more if the running game was like last year, but even with the offensive line in better shape they’re more reliant on the passing game. Sanchez was 2-19 with the Jets when NY allowed more than 24 points. I expect that to be 2-20 this time tomorrow.

Lions (7-2) at Cardinals (8-1) – Yeah, like you saw these teams battling for first place in the NFC in Week 11. I think the Lions should win the game, but their history is really making me want to pick Bruce Arians at home. In theory, Detroit’s defense should contain the running game and force Drew Stanton to carry the offense. Stanton will want to throw deep, which takes time to set up, which means Ndamukong Suh and company should get a good pass rush on him and create mistakes. Arizona will also shut down the run, but Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate are capable of making plays against Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. Matthew Stafford should outplay Stanton, but again, when do we see the Lions excel in these moments?

Remember this table? Stafford is 0-14 on the road against teams who finish the year with a winning record.

Staff9

I think it will be low scoring and close. The Lions have pulled off three straight 4QC/GWD in the final minutes. The Cardinals are 8-0 at upholding one-score leads in the fourth quarter. Something has to break here.

I’m definitely keeping an eye on the home teams in these big games. Discarding the now 5-5 Bills, there have been 38 games played in 2014 between teams who currently have a winning record. The home team is a staggering 28-10 (.737). As the mention of Buffalo shows, what constitutes a winning team in the early stages of Week 11 is not set in stone. If we look at regular-season games between teams finishing with winning records in recent years, we find the following home winning percentages: 24-15 (.615) in 2013, 33-13 (.717) in 2012, 19-16 (.543) in 2011, 25-17 (.595) in 2010 and 29-19 (.604) in 2009. So this season with its unusually high number of teams above .500 (17 entering the weekend) could end up well above average for home dominance.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I hesitated on TNF, but I did have Miami solving the Buffalo puzzle, which reads “NO PLAYOFFS AGAIN” when you complete it.

Winners in bold:

  • Buccaneers at Redskins
  • Bengals at Saints
  • Falcons at Panthers
  • 49ers at Giants
  • Seahawks at Chiefs
  • Texans at Browns
  • Vikings at Bears
  • Broncos at Rams
  • Raiders at Chargers
  • Eagles at Packers
  • Lions at Cardinals
  • Patriots at Colts
  • Steelers at Titans

Looking for the Bears and Panthers to show some pride at home against flawed division rivals after last week’s prime-time embarrassments. I think the Rams might sack Peyton Manning a few times, but he could torch them for 400 yards and four touchdowns. Though we’ll see if Shaun Hill does anything different for the offense. Before his first start, I’m on the record as thinking Ryan Mallett sucks, so I don’t expect much from him tomorrow (or ever).

I was going to write something about the Steelers this week, but too much aggravation after last week’s loss to the Jets. There’s really nothing new to say. This is what the Steelers do on the road against inferior competition, and look what’s on the schedule this week. However, I’m sure this is the game where the lousy rookie QB (Zach Mettenberger) will make just enough mistakes to allow for an unimpressive Pittsburgh win.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Week 9: 11-2
  • Week 10: 10-3
  • Total: 97-49-1

NFL Week 11 Predictions & Chiefs-Broncos Preview

We have three key games to focus on this week (49ers at Saints, Chiefs at Broncos and Patriots at Panthers), but one stands above the rest.

Chiefs at Broncos

I’ve already had a lot to say and tweet about this game, so I’m not going to repeat much of that here.

Simply put, I don’t believe in the Chiefs’ 9-0 record or that their defense is one of the all-time best. I think it’s a reflection of who they have played, which shouldn’t impress anyone. The Denver offense is historically impressive and has dominated to a higher level than the Chiefs’ defense. There’s also stronger correlation and consistency in maintaining offensive performance than there is defense. You can throw a touchdown to Wes Welker many times in the red zone, but once in a blue moon will you get Jeff Tuel’s gracious peace offering for a 100-yard pick-six.

The only reason I don’t think the Broncos easily win by 17+ points is because Kansas City’s catching them at the best possible time. The Chiefs had a bye week to rest and prepare. Jack Del Rio is in at interim head coach following John Fox’s surgery. Peyton Manning aggravated his high ankle sprain at the end of last week’s game and we don’t know how he’ll handle the outside pressure since his tackles are struggling. It’s also going to be pretty cold and while the “Manning in bad weather” thing is BS, no old quarterback with neck and ankle issues is going to benefit from that.

What I do know is you have to score a lot of points to beat a Peyton Manning team and I don’t think Alex Smith is capable of doing it on Sunday night. This so-called “winner” is 2-23 when his team allows more than 24 points. He’s 11-24 against teams with a winning record and has 35 TD to 40 INT in those games (just one 300-yard passing game). He’s 5-16 on the road against good teams and averages 164 passing yards in those contests.

Maybe Smith can get it done in Arrowhead in a 23-20 game (against Brock Osweiler given his luck lately), but the Denver defense plays better at home and Von Miller is going to have his say too.

To beat Manning you have to put up a lot of points or shrink the game and limit his possessions, forcing him to be basically perfect (maximum efficiency). The Chiefs have done neither this season. The offense has never scored more than 24 points and their games almost always include double-digit possessions.

Excluding those pesky playoff rest games, here’s every Manning loss since 2007 and what his defense did (kneel-down drives excluded):

PMDEF

For context, anything above 3.0 Pts/Dr is incredibly elite while 2.48 Pts/Dr means you have to be a top-2 offense. 1.80 would be just above average in recent seasons.

You have to go back to the 6-INT night in San Diego to find a game where Manning lost despite the opposing offense being below average in scoring. Darren Sproles had two return touchdowns and even then Manning was a missed 29-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri in erasing a 23-0 deficit for a win. Even if the Chiefs get a lead of 17-24 points, we know from every Denver loss since 2012 that those aren’t safe.

Meanwhile here’s the Chiefs’ 2013 offense and their per-drive production:

KCOFF

So let’s see… The Chiefs average 1.58 Pts/Dr this year and this is despite having the best average starting field position in football. I noticed a lot of their scoring drives started deep in opponent territory, so their scoring is even less impressive than it already sounds. They feast on mistakes, which the Broncos are certainly guilty of since 2012, so ball security is a must this week.

In Manning’s last 19 losses, no one had less than 1.89 Pts/Dr. That would be the 3rd-best game of the season for the Chiefs.

Given you seemingly need to hit at least 2.0 Pts/Dr to beat Manning, who’s expecting the Chiefs’ offense to deliver on their end? There’s Jamaal Charles, but there’s not much else to worry about.

Simply put, Manning hasn’t lost to an offense this bad since David Carr and the 2006 Houston Texans (ranked 23rd with 1.50 Pts/Dr). How did that one work out? Houston rushed for 191 yards, limited Manning to six possessions, got one fumble from Dominic Rhodes and still needed a 48-yard game-winning field goal with no time left in a 27-24 game.

The KC defense should not give up 40+, but nothing short of their offense having their best game of the season will win this one. I also don’t think the Chiefs can win without being at least +2 in turnover differential.

According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the No. 2 pass defense (DVOA). Here’s a table of Manning’s last 29 games against a top 5 pass defense (DVOA) since 2003. Playoff rest games are colored as are the five games I would consider “bad performances” from Manning. That’s an unscientific way of saying games where he was more of the problem than the solution for his team.

PMT5DEF

We’ll revisit this matchup in two weeks and perhaps again in January, but I just see the Broncos as a superior team even if they are vulnerable right now.

Final prediction: Chiefs 16, Broncos 27.

2013 NFL Week 11 Predictions

The Colts rarely make it look easy, but I had them on TNF.

Winners in bold:

  • Redskins at Eagles
  • Raiders at Texans
  • Falcons at Buccaneers
  • Browns at Bengals
  • Ravens at Bears
  • Lions at Steelers
  • Jets at Bills
  • Cardinals at Jaguars
  • Chargers at Dolphins
  • 49ers at Saints
  • Packers at Giants
  • Vikings at Seahawks
  • Chiefs at Broncos
  • Patriots at Panthers

Season results:

  • Week 1: 11-5
  • Week 2: 12-4
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 9-6
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 11-4
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-3
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 8-6
  • Season: 96-51

NFL Week 11 Predictions, Backup Quarterbacks, 4th Down Failure and Writing Recap

Thought about sending in the backup to write this one, but I’m okay to start Week 11, which will hopefully feature more clutch wins and fourth-down attempts. After all, it is Colts/Patriots week.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 10: “Epic Comeback Failure” Limited Edition – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Find out how a game-winning punt return touchdown, rare overtime tie, and non-offensive game-winning field goal capped a bizarre week without a single fourth-quarter comeback win or game-winning drive. That has not happened since Week 13 of the 1973 season. But don’t worry, this one-shot edition covers the rarity in great detail.

Evaluating the Backup QB Plans – NBC Sports

With four injured starters, it was a good time to take a team-by-team look at the primary backup quarterback. Let’s just say the crop is not very strong when Matt Hasselbeck, Kyle Orton and Matt Moore might be your top three options. Hasselbeck has more starts than 22 backups combined.

Pittsburgh Steelers Cannot Win AFC North without Ben Roethlisberger – Bleacher Report

Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers can forget about winning their division, which should require at least a split with the Ravens. Find out how they can still make the playoffs with Byron Leftwich (hint: Ohio).

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 10 at Jacksonville Jaguars – Colts Authority

In a game that felt like ages ago, Andrew Luck made his prime time debut and played a decent game. But despite all the praise from people likely seeing him play a full, live game in the NFL for the first time, find out why it was no better than his fifth best performance of the season.

The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Week 11 Predictions – Bleacher Report

Colts vs. Patriots is always interesting. Detroit might find themselves a fourth-quarter comeback against Green Bay. It should be another record-setting day for Peyton Manning against San Diego. Byron Leftwich has not won a NFL start since October 8, 2006. Find out some quarterbacks who went longer between NFL wins as starters, as well as picks for every game.

NFL Coaches Are More Gutless Than Ever on Fourth Down – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Did you know teams are converting on fourth down 55.0 percent in 2012 (highest since 1991)? Now did you know they are going for it on fourth down the lowest percentage of time since 1991 as well? A breakdown of the recent increase in risk-adverse, gutless coaching, including a distribution of when teams go for it on fourth down, and the most common decision (4th and 1), which makes up 89.4 percent of all fourth-down attempts since 2000.

2012 NFL Week 11 Predictions

A week near and dear to my heart, as we have Colts/Patriots and Ravens/Steelers. But it won’t be the same without Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger involved, which also impacts the pick.

Winners in bold:

  • Cardinals at Falcons
  • Buccaneers at Panthers
  • Browns at Cowboys
  • Packers at Lions
  • Jaguars at Texans
  • Bengals at Chiefs
  • Jets at Rams
  • Eagles at Redskins
  • Saints at Raiders
  • Chargers at Broncos
  • Colts at Patriots
  • Ravens at Steelers
  • Bears at 49ers

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Week 5: 10-4
  • Week 6: 5-9
  • Week 7: 12-1
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 11-3
  • Week 10: 9-4-1
  • Season: 94-51-1