2 comments on “NFL Week 1 Predictions: Upsets & Awards

  1. ” They call it a passing league, not a catching league. What has Brown accomplished without QB1 in the lineup? Not much, and for a wide receiver to truly win MVP, I think he’d have to have a mediocre QB at best and make some unbelievable plays that tip the balance of several high-profile games for a team that makes the playoffs. You would need a passing offense with stats where the QB was significantly more efficient and productive when throwing to this wideout than the rest of the receivers”

    Jerry Rice finished 2nd in MVP voting twice and 3rd once with Montana/Young as his quarterbacks, so that shouldn’t affected Brown’s chances at all.

    If I were to construct an MVP season for a receiver I’d take Randy Moss’ 2003 season stats (top 2 in catches, yards and TD catches) combined with his 4th quarter stats from the 2000 season (3 game winning TD’s and 2 other game clinching TD’s while leading by 1-7 points) and having the best record in that team’s conference.

    Also, I think degree of difficulty should matter too. For instance in 2000, the Vikings defense ranked 31st in defensive DVOA (8th worst estimated defensive DVOA between 1950-2013), had an 8.7 Pythagorean wins based on points scored and allowed, an 8.2 estimated wins according to Football Outsiders, yet won 11 games mainly because of Moss’ 4th quarter heroics early in the season (5 of the first 7 games) that got them off to a good enough to start at 7-0 and then 11-2 before the defense cratered in the last 3 games of the regular season, then in the NFC title game against the Giants, but they don’t get there without Moss, that’s the very definition of an MVP to me.

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