One comment on “NFL Week 13 Predictions: The MVP Race Is FUBAR

  1. Kacsmar takes some truly bizarre positions in his effort to denigrate Brady’s career. Saying Brady or Newton might be the MVP is controversial? Really? Newton has played well his entire career, but took over a team that had an atrocious offense the year before Cam showed up. He’s had very little talent to work with, and Newton’s a great example of a guy whose raw numbers don’t quantify his value. Brad Oremland, an expert on QBs, has always rated Newton very highly, and that’s good enough for me. His comment about McNair is ridiculous, as it’s not clear that Manning deserved to split the 2003 MVP with McNair, who outperformed Peyton in passer rating and anypa.

    As for Brady, Scott is literally the only person who doesn’t think he’s in the MVP race. His claim about Gronk is bogus, sure he’s a great player, but so what? Manning has been surrounded by star receivers his whole career, and Scott doesn’t hold that against Peyton. Brady was already putting up big numbers before Gronk became a star, like in 2010 when Brady won the MVP, and Gronkowski was 4th on the team in receiving yards. The idea that Brady can’t succeed without Gronkowski is not supported by evidence. Going into week 13, Brady was leading the league in passer rating, and 2nd in anypa. So Brady has been putting up big numbers this year.

    Brady’s numbers have gone down because of the Pats injuries, and trying to argue that he was surrounded by stars when Dion Lewis and Edelman were on the field is crazy. Lewis was out of football last year. Peyton has NEVER been on a team that didn’t have at least one star receiver, and Brady’s weakest seasons since 2005 (2006 and 2013) were the years when he had a weak receiving corps. Brady has kept his team competitive through a slew of injuries, which is what MVPs do.

    Now I think there’s a case for Palmer, but to present it like Scott does, as though Palmer is lapping the field, is ridiculous. And New England does have the number one scoring offense through week 12, if you go by points per drive. Of course, Scott refuses to discuss any stats that make Brady look good, so he won’t tell you that.

    And Scott always talks up QBR because it makes Manning look good. But it produces some genuinely puzzling results, like when it gave Wheeden a better score than Brady in the Pats-Cowboys game. If you look at the stats from that game, or watch it over again, there’s no way you can think Wheeden produced more value for his team than Brady. It also rated Manning ahead of Brady in 2010, even though Brady was much better by passer rating and anypa. Manning threw the ball more often, but Brady was much more effective when he actually threw the ball, and his team won more games. Real QB rating is the traditional passer rating formula adjusted to include sacks, rush stats, and fumbles lost. Going into week 13, Brady is slightly ahead of Palmer by that measure, and I think that’s a fair assessment.

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