NFL Conference Championship Predictions: “Manning Is Better than Brady, But So What?” Edition

Part of me is happy the AFC game is on first Sunday, but I also feel like I’m going to miss some of the NFC game afterwards for reasons still in my control, but I just can’t help myself. The endless Peyton Manning-Tom Brady debate grabbed me again on Saturday and I really didn’t even plan to write much about it this weekend.

There’s a good chance the best quarterback on Sunday won’t win, but the better quarterback should at least prevail in one of the games. I actually think it’s more important in the NFC game where two similar teams built around the model of physical defense and running game will meet for the third time. I don’t think it will be a blowout like San Francisco’s last two trips there. Jim Harbaugh won in Seattle in 2011, but the offense’s struggles to get the play called in on time does worry me with the 12th man’s noise.

Still, I think the game is decided by which quarterback makes more plays and fewer mistakes. Colin Kaepernick has been playing better and has more weapons, but Russell Wilson has home-field and the better overall defense. While the Seattle offense (passing game) does concern me, I have to side with the home team here to pull out a close one thanks to that defense.

Final prediction: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20

See, I barely gave the game any attention with a week to prepare, so who knows what Sunday will bring. If you want to read a detailed preview of the NFC Championship, read Aaron Schatz’s preview, which I did contribute to for one part.

Manning vs. Brady: Just the Facts

So after Tom Curran accidentally sent the latest Patriot brigade my way on Twitter on Saturday, I did not bother trying to fight them off one-by-one. I instead stood back and lobbed my own Twitter grenade with this line:

Tom Brady is the most overrated playoff QB in NFL history. Period.

Now some wanted me to prove that statement, which I think I can eloquently do without even making a 100% effort. Simply put, for the people who fawn over Brady as the best playoff quarterback ever or one of the top two or even just “wayyyyy better” than Peyton Manning, what I’m about to go through should show just how silly that notion is.

In fact, I do think Manning is a better playoff quarterback than Brady. Factors out of his control just tend to work against his teams more than Brady’s, but more on that later.

Let’s begin with some help from a fictional (but realistic) character that I’m going to call BRADYGUY.

BRADYGUY: Scott, this is asinine. EVERYONE knows Tom Brady raises his game this time of year and Manning falls off from his high regular-season perch.

Oh yeah? Then explain this comparison of performance in the regular season against playoff teams (teams who made the playoffs that season) compared to actual postseason performance:

pmtbdapr

Note: I haven’t fully explained DAPR yet, but it’s a simple calculation of passing stats that adjusts for opposing defense. The higher the DAPR the better.

We could start with the obvious that Manning’s playoff stats are more than respectable, if not outright better than Brady’s. But there’s something more interesting than that here.

Somehow Manning remains within one tenth of his winning percentage, completion percentage, YPA and passer rating against playoff teams from the reg. season to the postseason. One tenth. His DAPR gets even better as he’s played tough defenses in January and February. Meanwhile Brady is the one who suffers the bigger declines in his performance, including half a yard per pass attempt.

Overall, Brady’s 6.74 YPA in the playoffs ranks 39th all time (min. 150 attempts). One of the best statistical indicators of success, YPA does not suddenly become irrelevant in the playoffs.

Brady’s DAPR also dips well below normal levels. Now in the bottom half of the table where games from non-playoff seasons are excluded (as are the games Manning rests in Weeks 16-17 and usually watches his team lose), Manning does experience decline. That’s natural when you’re not playing the 4-12 Raiders or Bills in January.

Still, Brady’s decline is steeper with a 7-point drop in passer rating and going down even more in the other categories compared to the top half. So no, there’s zero evidence Brady elevates his game in the playoffs, and Manning certainly does not decline more.

BRADYGUY: Come on, Scott. Brady’s been to seven AFC Championships and five Super Bowls! He’s playing better competition in the playoffs than Mr. Eight Times One-and-Done Manning.

Are you sure? I can’t see Manning losing to Eli’s 9-7/10-6 squads, nor do I believe playing the Jaguars at home (2005 and 2007) was harder than starting with the 2005 Steelers and 2007 Chargers. Hell, what would have happened last year if Manning got a slumping Houston team and Brady had to start with the champion Ravens that often make him struggle? But we have objective measures for team quality like DVOA to look at.

For quarterbacks with at least 5 playoff starts since 1989, here are the averages for their playoff opponents in Team DVOA, Defensive DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA (average season ranks also included as well as rank [Rk] on the list):

posos

There are actually 41 quarterbacks compared here, but I’m showing 30 so it’s easier to read (click to enlarge).

Manning’s played teams with an average DVOA of 20.1% (8th), -6.6% Defense DVOA (20th) and -6.5% Pass Defense DVOA (14th). Brady’s ranks are 26th, 31st and 22nd, respectively.

So yes, Manning has played better overall teams, better defenses and better pass defenses. He’s also played two-thirds (14/21) of his playoff games on a home/neutral field compared to 80% (20/25) for Brady, which does matter this time of year.

BRADYGUY: Fine, Scott. Teams who make the playoffs are usually pretty good. But you can’t overlook the biggest part: Tom Brady is 18-7, Peyton Manning is 10-11. THAT’S HUGE. How can you justify Manning only being 10-11?

What I can do is ask the proper question. Why is Manning 10-11 and Brady 18-7 when their level of play is not that different in the playoffs?

BRADYGUY: Heh, but IT IS MUCH DIFFERENT. Brady puts up more points to help his team win.

Brady averages 2.13 points per drive in the playoffs; Manning averages 2.10 points per drive.

This meager difference comes despite Brady starting his average drive nearly four yards closer to the end zone than Manning. It also comes despite other factors out of the QB’s control like missed FGs (7 for Manning, 6 for Brady) or fumbles on completions (6 for Manning, 3 for Brady). It also includes two one-play touchdown drives from last week where LeGarrette Blount just took the handoff from Brady for a touchdown.

Speaking of missed field goals, Manning is the only QB in NFL history to twice watch his last possession in a playoff game end with a missed FG (2000 Dolphins in OT, 2005 Steelers at end of regulation down 21-18). That was Mike Vanderjagt and those kicks were as wide right as they come.

BRADYGUY: Brady got his kickers closer.

No, Adam Vinatieri had to kick a 45-yard field goal in the snow after the Tuck Rule just to get to OT against Oakland. In the Superdome in Super Bowl 36, he kicked a 48-yard field goal on the last play of the game. In 2003 against the Titans on a -10 wind chill night, Brady completed one pass on a drive in a 14-14 tie, forcing Vinatieri to nail a 46-yard field goal for the game-winner. He did.

Meanwhile, Vanderjagt missed a 49-yard attempt in Miami — one he told the coach he could make and had made a 50-yard kick moments earlier in the game — and a 45-yard attempt in the RCA Dome against Pittsburgh.

Switch those kickers and ask Vanderjagt to make those kicks in Foxboro. Might be looking at an 0-2 start in the playoffs for Brady (both losses at home).

BRADYGUY: Manning knows best about losing at home in the playoffs. He’s done it five times (NFL record). How can you defend that?

Yes, Manning has five home playoff losses…by a combined 14 points — the smallest margin for the 30 quarterbacks with multiple home playoff losses.

HPOL

“See, the luck I’ve had can make a good man turn bad”

Brady lost by 15 points at home to the Ravens in last year’s AFC Championship and by 19 points to the Ravens in 2009. He played very poorly in those games as well. Notice how Manning had some of the very best statistics in those home playoff losses.

That’s the common theme. Manning can play well, but still lose. Brady can do anything and still seemingly get a win.

BRADYGUY: Brady puts his teams in better position to win because he makes fewer mistakes than Manning in the playoffs.

Both quarterbacks have 22 interceptions in the playoffs. Brady has 115 more attempts, but studying all 44 plays show some key differences.

Brady has 18 bad throws and 4 tipped balls. On the tips, one was tipped at the line, one hit Donte Stallworth in one hand, one hit Sam Aiken high in one hand and another practically got Ben Watson killed in 2009. Two picks were thrown desperately in the fourth quarter with the Patriots trailing 27-13 (2005 Denver) and 28-13 (2012 Ravens). That’s still not garbage time yet as one score sets up an onside kick opportunity in a one-score game either way. Brady was at the Baltimore 22 on last year’s pick.

Manning has 15 bad throws, two QB/WR miscommunications with Marvin Harrison (both vs. Ty Law/2006 Chiefs) and five tipped balls. On the tips, one hit Marcus Pollard’s hand too high, one hit Reggie Wayne in the hands high, one deflected right off Kenton Keith’s hands deep in the red zone, one hit Eric Decker and the refs missed the defensive pass interference and one last week hit Decker in the chest and was deflected and caught in the end zone by San Diego. Three of Manning’s picks were in obvious garbage time: down 34-0 vs. Jets (4Q), down 41-0 vs. Jets (4q), down 20-3 vs. 2004 Patriots (12 seconds left). Against the 2006 Ravens, he threw a bomb on 3rd-and-17 with a 12-6 lead that was intercepted by Ed Reed. That served as a punt.

Each quarterback has had one interception fumbled back to them. Manning’s came in 2009 (BAL) with a 17-3 lead in the 3rd quarter. Brady’s came in 2006 (SD) with the Patriots down 21-13 and 6:16 left in the 4th quarter.

Luck Advantage: Brady

Each quarterback has had a turnover on the field reversed to an incomplete pass. Brady’s was the fumble that introduced us to the Tuck Rule against the Raiders in 2001. Without the call, the game would have been over with Rich Gannon taking knees. Manning’s was in 2005 against Pittsburgh on a Troy Polamalu interception overturned to an incompletion. Manning still trailed 21-10 with 5:26 left. Manning also lost a fumble last season against the Ravens on a very similar play to the Tuck Rule, but did not get that call in the last possible case it could have been used before the NFL removed it this offseason.

Luck Advantage: Brady.

Brady turned the ball over three times at home in the first quarter alone in an ugly 2009 loss to the Ravens. Manning threw three interceptions at home against the 2006 Chiefs, but still completed 30-of-38 passes (including a spike and one drop) in a 23-8 win.

Oh, and which quarterback threw four interceptions in the 2003 AFC Championship? When watching the game, felt like both, but only one defense took advantage.

Brady has four red-zone interceptions. All four were bad/forced throws. Manning has five red-zone interceptions. The last three all deflected off his receiver and the very first came when he trailed 41-0 in 2002 (Jets) and had the ball at the 19.

Manning has thrown three pick-sixes in the playoffs, including last year’s botched no-call. Brady has none, because Ben Watson tracked down Champ Bailey to the 1-yard line and prevented a 100-yard return in 2005.

Brady has 10 fumbles (3 lost) in the playoffs. Manning has 5 fumbles (2 lost). Fumble Luck Advantage: Brady

Manning’s first lost fumble was a handoff on a running play to Joseph Addai in Super Bowl XLI. The Bears recovered. Brady is credited with a botched handoff fumble in the 2006 AFC Championship in Indy. The Patriots recovered it for a touchdown. Fumble Luck Advantage: Brady.

Brady only had 3 INTs when he started 10-0 in the playoffs, but clearly that part of his game has changed and he’s always been as or more likely to have a bad turnover in a close game or in the red zone than Manning in the playoffs.

BRADYGUY: Scott, maybe you didn’t hear me. 18-7 vs. 10-11…

No, I heard you. I’ve just yet to find anything compelling that shows why there’s such a difference in record based on what the quarterbacks and not their teammates and coaches have done.

BRADYGUY: Isn’t it obvious? CLUTCH. Brady’s oozing with IT, and Manning’s just a choker. That’s where you need to look.

Third downs are pretty important situations. In the playoffs, Manning has converted 43.41 percent of his third downs compared to 40.78 percent for Brady. That rate for Brady is about average for prominent active quarterbacks in the playoffs.

BRADYGUY: I bet Brady’s better on tougher situations like third-and-long that are harder to convert.

Not quite…

pmtb3dpo

Manning faces a longer third down on average and converts more often on the medium and long situations. Brady is a hell of a lot better on the quarterback sneak, regular or post. That is one area I will give him over anyone.

BRADYGUY: Meh, that’s just one down. What about the WHOLE game?

Well we have stats like Win Probability Added (WPA) and Expected Points Added (EPA) that can account for how much the quarterback is contributing to his team scoring and winning the game. Credit to Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats for these stats, which I’ve collected for quarterbacks with 5+ playoff starts since 1999:

POWPA

Once again, Manning comes out near the top, ahead of Brady, who looks somewhat pedestrian given his lofty winning record. Manning’s the only player in the top 8 with a losing record. These stats also control for garbage time, so there’s no point in bringing that up. Obviously Manning hasn’t played in many blowout games in the playoffs to compile meaningless stats.

BRADYGUY: Can’t Manning boost his EPA by throwing short touchdown passes like last week, while Brady loses out when his team rushes for six scores against the Colts?

The EPA gained from a short touchdown pass is actually quite minimal since you’re already expected to score a touchdown that close to the goal line.

Besides, if anyone has padded their postseason TD total on short touchdown passes, it’s Brady by a HUGE margin:

POTD

So out of 25 QBs all time with 15+ TD passes in the playoffs, no one throws them shorter than Brady, who has a staggering 29 scores from 1-9 yards out. Oh, and Manning has the deepest active TD pass among the active quarterbacks. Go figure.

These next two facts also fit the “Manning gets screwed, Brady has great luck” idea quite well.

Brady has the most playoff wins ever without a touchdown pass (4). Manning has the most playoff losses without an interception (5).

And no, if you remember from earlier, Manning did not have a fumble in any of those games without an interception. No other quarterback has more than 3 playoff losses without an interception.

This is the kind of stuff I pointed out last Saturday night with this table:

GQB

C and D are especially telling in how impotent Brady has been in half of his playoff wins, while Manning doesn’t look bad at all in comparison for the times he went one-and-done.

BRADYGUY: The difference has to be Brady gets it done when it matters most, and that’s when Manning folds. It’s WHEN they make their mistakes.

Well, for starters, the WPA would already pick up on a lot of that, but sure, let’s get silly.

How about when it’s a one-score game in the fourth quarter/overtime in the playoffs? Surely Brady’s going to show his superiority there, right?

1scopo

Oops, that didn’t work. Pro-Football-Reference shows neither guy can feel too good about what they’ve done in those situations, though they do have the most attempts by far. Yet there’s Manning doing better than Brady, who dips under 6.0 YPA again.

I didn’t even point out all the dropped passes yet, but we need to save something for next year’s edition.

BRADYGUY: But Scott, it’s when those mistakes happen that matters. Manning’s BURIED his team against the Saints and Ravens and…teams.

Of course you’d bring those two plays up. They’re the only two times Manning’s done that in crunch time in the playoffs, yet the stigma of him always doing that existed even before Super Bowl XLIV. Brady did it in back-to-back weeks in the 2006 playoffs.

  • Fourth quarter or overtime, down by 0-8 points in the playoffs: Brady and Manning have each thrown TWO interceptions in this situation.
  • Fourth quarter or overtime, down by 0-16 points in the playoffs: Brady has thrown FIVE interceptions compared to THREE for Manning.

So enough with the “Manning throws killer picks” thing. Brady has too and they came on days he played worse overall.

BRADYGUY: Okay, I think I got it. Brady has 7 game-winning drives in the playoffs and Manning is 1-9 at game-winning drive opportunities in the playoffs. I GOT YOU! Checkmate! Why can’t Manning finish in the playoffs like Brady?

He can’t? I think the numbers in the previous table show Manning’s just as adequate (or inadequate) as Brady in crunch time in the playoffs. It’s what happens around those quarterbacks that has created that 7-1 split in playoff GWDs, which I guess would be 8-0 if Brady’s defense came through for him (again).

You tell me how much of this is on Manning in GWD opportunities:

1999 Titans – Down 16-9, Manning threw a perfect pass downfield to Marvin Harrison, who dropped it on 3rd-and-22. Titans added a field goal and Edgerrin James later dropped a fourth-down pass.

2000 Dolphins – In overtime, Manning set up the field goal, but as mentioned, Vanderjagt shanked it badly and Manning never got another chance.

2003 Patriots – Despite his worst playoff game ever (4 INTs), Manning had the ball down 21-14 with 2:01 left. But we didn’t even get to see what he’d do on the drive thanks to some illegal defense from the Patriots that helped lead to reinforcement of illegal contact. The NFL quietly admitted both incomplete passes on third and fourth down should have been penalties on New England.

2005 Steelers – Getting one last chance from a Jerome Bettis fumble, Manning set up Vanderjagt for another classic shank in a 21-18 loss that would have sent the game to OT. Manning trailed 21-3 to start the fourth quarter.

2006 Patriots – Down 34-31, Manning drove the Colts 69 yards in 24 seconds — that’s pretty efficient — to let the running game finish off the game-winning TD drive with a minute left.

2007 Chargers – Manning threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to Anthony Gonzalez in the fourth quarter, but the Colts’ No. 1 defense allowed backup QB Billy Volek to drive for the game-winning touchdown. On his last drive, Manning threw good passes to Reggie Wayne (3rd down) and Dallas Clark (4th down), but both were dropped, including an embarrassing flub by Clark to end the game.

2008 Chargers – What GWD opportunity? Manning needed two yards to end the game on a third-and-2, but his rookie tight end forgot the snap count and didn’t get out of his break until it was too late. Manning was sacked and the Chargers tied the game late. Manning never got the ball in OT as the Chargers drove for the winning touchdown.

2009 Saints – Notice the lack of Manning mistakes? Here we go for a change. Manning threw the pick-six to Tracy Porter and that’s mostly on him. I’ll still say Reggie Wayne’s route was poorly run (just watch the feet), but Porter did a good job to jump the route and make the play.

2010 Jets – Manning only had three second-half possessions and ended each with a field goal, including the last one to take a 16-14 lead with 0:53 left. That usually holds up, but one big kick return by Antonio Cromartie crushed that idea and the Jets got the 17-16 win in Manning’s last game with the Colts.

2012 Ravens – Manning led a go-ahead 88-yard TD drive with 7:11 left, but obviously the Rahim Moore disaster stands out there.  In OT, the Broncos dropped Joe Flacco’s picks, but the Ravens made sure to hang onto Manning’s bad throw and bad decision.

So that’s all of them. Still want to say it’s the quarterback?

  • Manning’s lost 6 playoff games after leading in the fourth quarter. No other quarterback has more than 4 (Warren Moon).
  • Manning led in the last 40 seconds of the fourth quarter in four of those losses.
  • Manning’s led a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter of his last three home playoff losses.
  • Manning is the only QB in NFL history with two lost comebacks in the playoffs. Brady has one (SB XLII). These are games where the QB did everything to meet the requirement for a 4QC except win the game.

Brady’s GWDs mostly consist of long field goals just like the ones Vanderjagt missed, a fumbled interception on fourth down in San Diego, missed FGs by the opponent, Drew Bennett not catching a pass in 2003 and other unbelievable failures like the Lee Evans-Sterling Moore play in the 2011 AFC Championship.

Isn’t that the crux of this whole thing? Joe Flacco throws a pass to knock Brady out of the playoffs, yet Sterling Moore defends it away in the end zone and Billy Cundiff chokes on the FG. The next year, Flacco throws a TD pass over Rahim Moore to force OT and Justin Tucker delivers on the 47-yard FG in cold conditions to end Manning’s season and make his INT his last throw of the game. Manning and Brady were helpless in these situations, yet Brady won despite playing an inferior game and Manning lost despite playing very well. Same old story.

Brady’s celebrated for his playoff GWDs, yet when it comes down to one guy stepping up and making that game-deciding play, more often than not we see someone not named Brady do it for New England and someone not named Manning screw it up for Indianapolis/Denver.

So when I say Brady’s the luckiest QB in playoff history and Manning’s the unluckiest, this is exactly what I’m talking about. No quarterbacks have more close wins (Brady) or close losses (Manning) in the playoffs than these two, yet all the stats (advanced or not) and tape show there’s no significant difference in how they played in these situations.

If anything, you’d think Manning would be the one with a 18-7 record and Brady would be under .500.

BRADYGUY: But Scott, isn’t a loss a loss? Manning has tied Favre for the most playoff losses (11) ever.

Well aren’t we talking about being the best? Do you want a guy that’s going to lose by 15-19 points at home and play like crap, or do you want someone who can give his team a chance to win every single playoff game? Sometimes that’s going to lead to some losses with perhaps a late-game turnover. Play long enough and that can happen to anyone. Is that really worse than the guy who shits the bed in the first quarter and never gives his team a chance? Manning also set a record with his 13th playoff berth this year.

Manning has had a fourth-quarter lead in his last 12 playoff games. No one else in NFL history has had a streak longer than 10 games.

Not even Brady.

BRADYGUY: Isn’t Brady just more consistent in the playoffs? Manning has a few huge games, but Brady is more likely to give you a solid performance each week.

No. Brady started his playoff career with five mediocre performances, five very good games to get to 10-0, but since then, he’s a mixed bag that hasn’t put together two good performances in back-to-back playoff games since Super Bowl 39 and January 2006 (Jacksonville).

Meanwhile Manning’s done this:

80pr

Not a passer rating fan? Understandable, but an 80, especially in the playoffs, is usually the indicator of an okay game.

I did see this from ESPN on best cumulative playoff Total QBR since 2006: Colin Kaepernick (85.4), Aaron Rodgers (77.2), Kurt Warner (75.3) and Peyton Manning (72.2).

Familiar names at the top, right? And Brady’s missing again. That doesn’t even factor in defense, like how Manning had a 60.6 QBR in the 2006 playoffs (yes, even with 3 TD and 7 INT). That year, Manning became the only QB in NFL history to beat the top three defenses in the same postseason.

BRADYGUY: …but 18-7 and 10-

I have to cut you off there, BRADYGUY, or else we might keep going until kickoff. I didn’t even crunch the numbers on Brady’s superior running game and defense in the postseason.

So taking this all in, seeing where Brady stacks up relative to Manning and other quarterbacks, there’s really nothing more misleading in the NFL today than 18-7 and 10-11. For that matter, Aaron Rodgers being 5-4 and Drew Brees being 6-5 also makes little sense relative to Brady.

Well, it makes sense to people who can see it’s a team game and no team has played better than the Patriots since 2001, but that doesn’t mean the QB is always deserving of the credit.

People don’t like to hear it, but at some point you have to chalk up the record to better team play and downright good fortune. You know, it’s a team game after all, but for some reason every Marvin Harrison dropped ball or Edgerrin James fumble is overlooked because god forbid Deion Branch or Kevin Faulk could make those plays for Brady. (They did)

They weren’t high draft picks, they can’t possibly be great. Manning lost the playoff game, he can’t possibly have played well.

S.O.S. for a decade-plus now.

Now some will say I put a jinx on Manning today by putting this out there. That’s impossible. The guy’s had a playoff jinx on him his whole career. I’m not adding anything to it. I’m just pointing out the facts instead of dropping to my knees for Brady and Belichick in the playoffs like too many other writers and fans have done.

And I’m still picking the Patriots to win this game.

Oh, About the AFC Championship…

Do I still have the energy to go past 4,000 words? Sure, but I’ll keep this preview relatively short.

When the Patriots won aforementioned game in San Diego in the 2006 playoffs, that was the last straw for me. I said I wouldn’t pick against the Patriots in a big game again. Something ridiculous always seems to happen for them. So I picked them to beat the Colts and they choked away an 18-point lead the following week. They blew a perfect season at 18-0 in 2007. “We’re only going to score 17 points?” No, 14. Despite going 16-0 in the regular season at home in 2008-09, the Patriots went one-and-done in back-to-back years against the Ravens and Jets, teams they beat in the regular season including a 45-3 smacking. They should have lost to the 2011 Ravens and did lose again to the Giants in SB 46, despite being favored. They were the favorites again last year when a Ravens team I thought had a great chance to go in there and win did just that, holding the Pats to 13 points (second-half shutout).

(Note: a lot of this further applies to why Brady is the most overrated playoff QB).

All seven of the playoff losses under Belichick/Brady have been rematches. This game with Denver is a rematch. The last game really doesn’t apply too much in that the venue is different, the weather will be much better, there’s no Rob Gronkowski and Von Miller (among others) and John Fox is back on the sideline.

While you probably think I’m dying to pick Denver (and I am, and I like, but not love, their chances), I’m not going to do it.

Can’t.

A depleted Jack Del Rio defense that has a tendency to leave guys wide open on third and fourth down? Uh-oh. For as much talk as there’s been about NE’s running game, and the run will be huge for both teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out throwing with Brady early and often. This isn’t a “do what we do every week” team. They adjust for each opponent and the weakness in Denver is the pass defense. The run defense has been solid all year with and without Miller, so it would be a surprise to see them gashed there. The pass is the problem without Chris Harris and without Miller, who played great in NE, rushing Brady.

Quentin Jammer and Kayvon Webster may just combine to Rahim Moore another season for Denver. Somehow Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola continue to get open underneath when it’s painfully obvious Brady is going to them with the ball. Do I trust Del Rio to adjust? Of course not. New England’s offense should do fine. Shaun Phillips has to have a huge game against Marcus Cannon in Miller’s absence. That’s a matchup to watch.

On the other side (both sides, but moreso on this matchup), I’ll be curious to see how much contact is allowed in the secondary. That’s NE’s best hope to jam these receivers and throw off the timing routes. Manning needs to work on the 8-15 yard range in this game and not try to bomb it out. Wes Welker will want to have a huge game, but I think this is about Thomas & Thomas again.

I have been getting a lot of Patriot fans talking out of both sides of their mouth this week. On one end, it’s “Manning has the best weapons ever!” On the other, it’s “Talib and Jamie Collins will shut down Thomas & Thomas, Eric Decker is super soft and Julian Edelman could cover Welker AND outplay him at receiver and punt returner!” Okay, so which is it?

I think the Patriots can get some stops in this game, but it’s going to be hard to shut down the passing game that never got going last time due to the crazy start with fumbles. Manning should have a much better game this time, but any 400 yards/4 TD expectations are lunacy. The Patriots rarely give up 30+ points of offense in 13 years under Belichick. I think they have to hold Denver under that to win this one. I still think Demaryius is the key guy that makes this offense go, so he can’t be under 50 yards for Denver to pull this one out.

This is Manning-Brady XV, but remember, these games have never been a shootout. Maybe we’ll get that for an instant classic, but I’d sooner expect Denver to fall behind by 17 points and make a dramatic comeback again. Denver’s constant ball security issues bother me. Last week they had a lot of bad plays with drops, fumbles and stumbles, but maybe that was a little rust and they’ll be sharper this week.

They’ll have to be. The Patriots are not the Chargers. Belichick won’t mail in a conservative gameplan like new job-seeking Whisenhunt did and the Patriots will capitalize on every little mistake. New England hasn’t been impressive on the road, though their best road game was their last (at Baltimore).

At the end of the day, I see a Denver team with a better QB and better receivers, but the Patriots hold the other advantages. Well, except for home-field this time. What do you think historically wins more of these big games?

I’ll call my shot here. In the nature of what I’ve presented above, this game clearly has two possible endings: a game-ending Brady interception or a dropped pass by Wes Welker on fourth down.

Either way, we already know which QB will get more credit for a win and which will get more blame for a loss. I hope to enjoy a potentially historic Sunday and do what I do every week: watch the games, write later what actually decided the outcome and who to hold accountable. Isn’t that the easiest way to do this job? Why do some feel the need to continue a decade-old narrative, facts and new information be damned?

Final score: Patriots 30, Broncos 27

And I am rooting for Denver-Seattle, because I want to see the best offense play the best defense. “So for once in my life, let me get what I want…”

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29 thoughts on “NFL Conference Championship Predictions: “Manning Is Better than Brady, But So What?” Edition

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  2. This should be gospel. And, the Brady luck fest continued this postseason:

    1. The last two times that Manning was hurt, Brady made the Super Bowl.
    2. Flacco and the Ravens had no right to throw that pass into the end zone.
    3. Pete Carroll and Darrell Bevell: WHAT WERE YOU THINKING!!!

    I can’t believe that people think he is GOAT. On Football’s Future (I don’t know if you have heard of it), there is a “Brady GOAT Now” thread, and a lot of people actually believe that he is just because he lucked into another SB ring.

  3. I just want to say that this is a great article. It’s a little outdated but this is a big enough sample to where it’s still very clear who the better Quarterback is. It’s just unfortunate that so much emphasis gets put on ringz otherwise everyone would consider Peyton the better player, which he is.

    The whole “Brady is GOAT” has to be prisoner of the moment. There is no good argument that he’s better than Peyton and Montana (the real postseason GOAT). I’m open to people thinking he’s better than anyone else but not those two.

    1. This article is a load of garbage, and Kacsmar should be ashamed his name is on it. Scott has used genuine stats, but in a very misleading way, to promote the fallacy that Manning has outperformed Brady in the playoffs. For example, in the chart called Guess the Quarterback, he has cherry-picked Brady’s 7 first playoff games, because he knows those stats look mediocre. But he doesn’t mention that in Brady’s next 3 playoff games, he produced a rating over 100, or that Brady was unbeaten in his first 10 playoff games. Then, when discussing Manning’s career, he doesn’t include any games from before the 2007 season. Why? Because he knows that Manning’s worst playoff games all came before 2007.

      He also constantly focuses on Brady’s worst playoff games, even though there are very few truly bad playoff performances for Brady, but constantly sweeps Manning’s worst games under the rug. What bothers me about this article is that to someone who hasn’t studied their careers, it would be easy to fall for his argument. Clearly, this is why he has so carefully chosen the data he presents.

      Manning has not outperformed Brady in the playoffs, and that claim is just as bogus as the case Kacsmar makes for it here. The fact that people like Scott have to work so hard to fool people into believing the case for Manning is itself an argument that Brady has had the superior playoff career.

      1. Scott talked about the 99, 00, and 03 Playoff losses. Those were before 07. He talked about how Marvin Harrison dropped a key pass in their 99 loss to Tennessee. And, I don’t know if Manning has had any truly bad playoff games except for 02 against the Jets and last year against Indy (which didn’t happen yet as of this writing).

  4. My point was that in the chart Guess the Quarterback, Kacsmar has compared Brady’s first 7 playoff starts to a sample that doesn’t include Manning’s career pre-2007. It’s intended to give the impression that Brady typically struggles in the playoffs, and that Manning always plays well, but those things aren’t true. If you compare Brady and Manning in their first 7 playoff games, or their first ten, Brady will come out ahead. That’s why he chose the splits he did. In other parts of the post, he mentions other losses for Manning from the early part of his career. But he always paints them in the best possible light, and makes every excuse he can think of for Manning’s losses. He always presents Brady’s achievements in the worst light. He’s hopelessly biased, and no one interested in serious analysis of the two players’ careers would take this stuff seriously.

    Kacsmar won’t post this anywhere outside his blog, like Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, or Cold Hard Football Facts. It’s because he knows it would get torn to shreds. As for your claim that Peyton has only two bad playoff games in his career, I don’t agree, though it would depend on your definition of “bad”. Do you really think he played well in the loss to Tennessee in 99, or the loss to Miami in 2000, or the losses to NE in 03-04? In the loss to the Steelers in 05, his rate stats were pretty good, but it was close at the end only because Indy caught a couple of huge breaks in the 4th. Through the third quarter, Indy had only 3 points. Is it unfair to call those examples bad peformances, for the QB who people like Kacsmar claim is the best ever? I don’t think it is.

    1. I’ve written about every Manning playoff game, so you couldn’t be any more wrong there. Your assumptions are off base as well. I compared Manning’s last 7 playoff games (at the time of writing) because of the 2-5 record compared to Brady’s first 7, which included 5 pretty subpar performances where he still got the win every time because of his team. That’s the point. One QB isn’t outplaying the other. The record is because of the other elements of the team. Always has been.

      I can post this anywhere if I felt like it, but the topic is taboo at FO. Why do you think there’s a Irrational thread that’s been up for years on the subject?

      Your definition of bad doesn’t interest me. Your clear lack of knowledge on the games you’re calling bad drives me to get things right. Maybe try reading this stuff over again and you’ll see what you’re missing.

      1. I stand by what I said above. This article has very carefully chosen statistics to leave the false impression that Manning outplays Brady in the playoffs. I dare you to post this same article, word for word, at a reputable analytics site. I know you won’t do it. You know that if you compare the start of Brady’s playoff career to the beginning of Manning’s, or the second half of Brady’s career to the second half of Manning’s, Brady will look stronger than Manning, or at least equally good. That’s why you’ve very carefully chosen the samples provided, to create a false impression that Brady is overrated, and also that Manning doesn’t have weak playoff games. That’s just one example of many in this post, of cherry-picked stats designed to make Manning look good.

        You keep calling Brady overrated, but the facts don’t back you up. You keep talking about the 2 bad losses to Baltimore by Brady, and present these results as though they are typical of his playoff career. Nothing could be further from the truth. I know I can’t convince you, Scott. You’ve devoted your career to misleading analysis like this, and like Tom Curran said, it’s equivalent to proving that the Earth is flat. Manning has NOT outperformed Brady in the playoffs.

        Average performances by Brady aren’t equivalent to below-average performances by Manning. Manning was 2-5 at the start of his career because he had a lot of subpar or awful performances in that time. Sure he wasn’t terrible against Miami, for example, but he wasn’t anything special, either. The idea that Manning loses in the playoffs because of consistent bad luck is not supported by evidence.

        If you think Manning played well in the examples I provided, than I guess we have different definitions of playing well. I’ll agree he wasn’t awful against the Titans, but he was nothing special, and had he played better, it’s likely the Colts would have won. Manning completed less than half his passes, had 5.4 ypa, and did not throw a TD. That’s not a bad peformance, for the “greatest QB ever”?

        You can dismiss my points if you like, but other people won’t. That’s why I know you won’t put this on FO or Chase’s site. If you’re not interested in what I have to say, that just proves you’re not interested in serious analysis. You have a style typical of some intellectuals, who constantly have to remind everyone how much expertise they possess. It’s a sign of insecurity, and it’s not your expertise I’m questioning here. It’s the way you’ve chosen to apply that knowledge, in a way that doesn’t reflect the facts. Anyone who has studied the playoff careers of the two QBs will be able to see through your argument here.

      2. Scott, WR is typical of a Brady Bouquet thrower. He called you insecure, and said that you don’t have the guts to put your analysis on a site where they probably kiss Brady’s butt. I deal with these people on a website called Football’s Future. I try to make factual posts (like how Brady has benefitted from a weak division and pointing out the coaching and QB changes in said division the last 15 years), and they like to waive that away.

  5. I figured that when I came on here using facts to defend Tom Brady, there would be a backlash. jbsptfn, you it’s very telling that you haven’t tried to dispute any of the points I made in my last post. It’s much easier to attack my credibility and call me names.

    At sites like Football Perspective, they don’t kiss Brady’s butt. Most people who post there rate Manning ahead of Brady. I keep challenging Scott to post this somewhere else, because I know as well as he does that it’s a bogus article. He would risk real damage to his reputation if he posted this at a place like FP or FO.

    As for your claim about NE’s division, I agree with you that it hasn’t been very good. But is that really as significant as you say it is? Brady’s career record against teams in his division, the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and 2001 Colts, is 64-17. Now I haven’t looked up the record of those teams against the rest of the league, but I”m pretty sure it’s better than 17-64. So a big part of the reason why the AFC east has looked so bad, is because they play Brady and the Pats more often than anyone else.

    Also, you’re bringing up the weak division because you’re trying to show that Brady has benefitted from an easy schedule. Let’s test that by looking at the records for Manning and Brady against teams that finish above .500, and then teams that finish .500 or below.

    Against weak teams, Brady is 109-14, Manning 122-22, so there’s not much difference there. But when we look at W-L v. good teams, Brady is at 72-41, a .637 win percentage, and Manning is at 68-68, .500. I’m feeling charitable today, so I’m going to remove Manning’s weak 1998 season, which improves his record against winners to 67-59, still far below Brady’s numbers.

    So between Manning and Brady, it appears Manning is the one who has improved his W-L record more by playing weak opposition. Also, W-L against winning teams is one of the most reliable predictors of postseason success. So despite what Scott says, we shouldn’t be surprised that Brady has a better playoff W-L record than Manning.

    Thanks to Dan Marowni of Pats Pulpit, who provided the W-L splits I used here.

    1. Since 2001, the other three teams in that division (I won’t count the 01 Colts since they left the next year) have had 17 coaching changes and about 40 different QB’s start for them. How can you get any stability that way? That benefits the Patriots more than you like to admit. To win the war, you have to win the homefront first.

  6. I don’t think “WR” has a clue how any of this works. No “reputable” site is going to re-post something written from 1/19/2014 from another site at this point in time. And I put my name on this and everything else I write. I’m not worried about reputation. I know what I’m writing.

    And please get out of here with “serious analysis” when all you’re providing is proof you know how to read a box score and you can get someone else to provide you win-loss numbers that don’t take anything about said QB’s performance into context.

    Manning completed less than 50% of his passes against the 1999 Titans? He sure did. He also had seven dropped passes in that game, including three in the fourth quarter on third-and-10, third-and-22 and fourth-and-4. Think that might have limited his stats and scoring output? Think that might have contributed to the 19-16 loss?

    You bring up records vs. winning teams. Do you not see the very first table in this article? That’s against playoff teams, and it’s clear which QB’s performance declines more in the playoffs against quality teams.

    1. Kacsmar has a very abrasive and dismissive style towards those who criticize his work, which comes across in his responses to me here. Just because I don’t study stats for a living doesn’t mean I can’t learn enough to critique an article like this. His work here, which is distinctly different from what he publishes at other sites, is clearly designed to mislead the reader into believing Manning is better than Brady in the playoffs, which is a ridiculous claim.

      He can continue to make excuses for Manning’s bad performances, but I’m confident even Manning himself would admit he did not play well in the playoff game against Tennessee. I don’t get why Kacsmar continues to argue against the obvious. Even if you don’t agree that the 99 game against Tennessee was poor, there are still plenty of other poor performances from the first few seasons of Manning’s career. Scott is trying to convince you that Manning never plays poorly in the postseason, but the only way he can do so is by hiding the statistics Manning compiled through 2006. That’s why the Guess the Quarterback chart contains only games from after 2006.

      Let’s take a look at one of the other things Scott talked about in that same chart. He includes the 4 games in Brady’s career where Brady won without throwing a TD pass. This is included in order to convince the reader that Brady plays poorly, and wins through the help of his teammates. So is that really a valid claim? Brady has now played 29 playoff games, and those are the only 4 in which he hasn’t thrown a TD pass. So a fair interpretation of this data would be this: In 25 of 29 playoff games, and 17 of 21 playoff wins, Brady has thrown at least one TD pass. When looked at like that, it doesn’t suggest that Brady typically wins while playing poorly.

      But Scott’s claim looks even worse when we take a detailed look at the 4 games in question. One was the 2001 AFC championship, in which Brady got hurt, and Bledsoe played most of the game. One was the 2001 divisional playoff, played in a blizzard, in which Brady had a rushing TD. One was the 2011 AFC championship, in which Brady again had a rushing TD. So what are we left with? The 2013 divisional playoff against the Colts, also played in bad weather. In that game, the Pats used a run-heavy gameplan because of the bad conditions, and the fact that the Colts had a terrible run defense. So in 27 of Brady’s 29 playoff games, he’s contributed at least one TD, the only exceptions being a game where he got hurt, and a game where his team hugely emphasized rushing offense. So the 4 games in which Brady has won while not throwing a TD don’t suggest that he leans heavily on his teammates at all.

      If Scott really believes the argument he makes in this article is legitimate, he should be willing to publish it at another site. He’s welcome to update the stats after Brady’s latest triumph, and Manning’s latest choke job, this past January.

      1. Well said. Scott, and his legion of Peyton homers hate it when you have a good argument. They try to insult your intelligence rather than addressing your points. Scott is a true idiot.

  7. I’m sorry but the opening chart sticks out in a way that subverts the blog’s basic premise…

    So, the first thing I notice is that Tom Brady’s record against playoff-caliber-teams gets a little better in the actual postseason…despite the fact that his stats get a little worse. Hmm. But how? If the teams are the same…and it’s even in the same year….then what could possibly explain how the stats drop but the record still gets better? What could possibly inhibit a QBs statistical output..in a region like New England…in the playoffs…which are played in January…outdoors…

    …..Oh, wait.

    That’s right. One QB is playing the majority of his games outdoors, in the winter. The other gets the majority of playoffs games in a dome. So, one QBs stats *should* fall off, while the other’s should stay the same.

    Yet, despite this, Peyton’s post-season stats still fall off to a degree that’s only *slightly* less than Brady’s; which would explain why Peyton’s record falls off in the post-season, too.

    1. “So, the first thing I notice is that Tom Brady’s record against playoff-caliber-teams gets a little better in the actual postseason…despite the fact that his stats get a little worse. Hmm. But how?”

      Enough good fortune and bounces going his way along with a stellar defense and ST performance. The regular season has a larger sample size, and you would expect more of a true mean in a situation that’s difficult (beating good teams). If Brady played closer to 100 playoff games, his record would likely regress back towards average (.500). Same for anyone. It’s really that simple. Plus you mention the fact that the games are often at home. Well, duh. Home-field advantage is big in the playoffs.

      Weather is not a good excuse here since most of Brady’s playoff games have been in fine conditions. Try explaining why he averages 6.5 YPA in six Super Bowls where weather is pristine, or just 6.94 YPA in 7 road playoff games where there was never any precipitation, significant wind or poor field conditions. That’s 13 games right there.

  8. This would have been pretty funny at the time but 2.5 years later it is absolutely hilarious!

    Pretty much the only interesting take away I got was with that first chart on the performance vs. playoff teams.
    The takeaway was that Peyton’s “Greatest Regular Season QB” status might be a little overrated as he didn’t play all that well against playoff caliber teams in the regular season either…

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