2 comments on “NFL Week 15 Predictions and Rational Manning vs. Brady Facts

  1. The problem with Scott’s case for Manning over Brady, both here and more generally, is that it’s largely dependent on ESPN’s QBR stat. The problem with QBR is that ESPN won’t tell us the full formula, and also that it includes a big penalty for accumulating YAC. By Scott’s own admission, accumulating more air yards than YAC does not correlate to winning. So it’s not clear that a QB’s team is better off if the QB gains more air yards.

    It also really bothers me that a lot of people in analytics discount W-L records and postseason success as though they are insignificant. I get that the case for Manning over Brady makes more sense if you put a lot of value on air yards and career totals. But it that’s what Kacsmar thinks, why does he rank Montana ahead of Marino? Marino’s career totals are much better than Montana’s, and although we don’t have air yards totals for the 1980s, it’s clear that Marino threw deep far more often. So why the love for Montana?

    I also don’t understand the value of this particular post. Manning has played a little better in the 23 losses between 2007-2013. So what? What does that prove? Why were wins excluded? Even if you want to show that Manning played really well in all 23 games, he still lost all 23. How much value can that really add to our evaluation of Manning’s career, in big picture terms? A lot of Kacsmar’s analysis, both here and on his twitter feed, seem heavily influenced by a blatant pro-Manning and anti-Brady bias. For example, he once argued that Manning played just as well in SB 48 as Brady did in SB 49. There is an argument to rate Manning over Brady, but it’s not nearly as clear-cut as Kascmar claims it is.

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