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	<title>Comments for Scott Kacsmar: NFL Writing Archive</title>
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	<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com</link>
	<description>Quantifying clutch (and anything else Captain Comeback finds worthy of exploring)</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 20 Apr 2013 17:57:21 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Comment on Reaching For Value in the NFL Draft by jeff</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/04/16/reaching-for-value-in-the-nfl-draft/comment-page-1/#comment-634</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jeff]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Apr 2013 17:57:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=342#comment-634</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tampa Bay can have Tavon Austin, anyone other than the Vikings....my god if the Vikings draft Austin (who my household has already begun to call &quot;Troy Williamson 2&quot;) I will jump in the damn MIssissippi RIver and not swim.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tampa Bay can have Tavon Austin, anyone other than the Vikings&#8230;.my god if the Vikings draft Austin (who my household has already begun to call &#8220;Troy Williamson 2&#8243;) I will jump in the damn MIssissippi RIver and not swim.</p>
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		<title>Comment on A Ray Lewis Super Bowl Tackle and the NFL&#8217;s Need for Offensive Line Stats by Offensive Lineman Stats Stat! &#124; Pro Football Hot Reads</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/a-ray-lewis-super-bowl-tackle-and-the-nfls-need-for-offensive-line-stats/comment-page-1/#comment-580</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Offensive Lineman Stats Stat! &#124; Pro Football Hot Reads]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Feb 2013 17:00:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=327#comment-580</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] .@CaptainComeback says if LBs get assisted tackles, surely we can come up w O-Linemen stats.  Looks at particular play where @raylewis gets a questionable assist.  Link [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] .@CaptainComeback says if LBs get assisted tackles, surely we can come up w O-Linemen stats.  Looks at particular play where @raylewis gets a questionable assist.  Link [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on A Ray Lewis Super Bowl Tackle and the NFL&#8217;s Need for Offensive Line Stats by Arif Hasan</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/a-ray-lewis-super-bowl-tackle-and-the-nfls-need-for-offensive-line-stats/comment-page-1/#comment-579</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arif Hasan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Feb 2013 02:08:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=327#comment-579</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[PFF has a generic run blocking grade, and then individual pass protection stats for all offensive linemen: total pass blocking snaps, sacks allowed, hits allowed and pressures allowed. They also attribute some sacks to running backs or tight ends in protection, or a QB who holds on to the ball too long. In those instances, they don&#039;t usually attribute a sack to the offensive linemen, unless the defender beat two people to get to the QB.

Pancakes isn&#039;t that useful of a stat (and they don&#039;t carry it), but they do have running back stats for yards per carry for running between each gap, as well as in the alleys. The run blocking grade is pretty good and correlates to yards before contact.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>PFF has a generic run blocking grade, and then individual pass protection stats for all offensive linemen: total pass blocking snaps, sacks allowed, hits allowed and pressures allowed. They also attribute some sacks to running backs or tight ends in protection, or a QB who holds on to the ball too long. In those instances, they don&#8217;t usually attribute a sack to the offensive linemen, unless the defender beat two people to get to the QB.</p>
<p>Pancakes isn&#8217;t that useful of a stat (and they don&#8217;t carry it), but they do have running back stats for yards per carry for running between each gap, as well as in the alleys. The run blocking grade is pretty good and correlates to yards before contact.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Peyton Manning&#8217;s Eight One-And-Done NFL Playoffs: Learn What You Are Criticizing by copaaantl98</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/comment-page-1/#comment-555</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[copaaantl98]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2013 15:29:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=314#comment-555</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[THANK YOU for this!!! I can&#039;t stand folks that seem to  constantly throw out a QB&#039;s individual win/loss record in general. To these folks, I guess special teams and the defense just don&#039;t exist in football. I guess it&#039;s a one man QB show. Your analysis belongs on ESPN!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>THANK YOU for this!!! I can&#8217;t stand folks that seem to  constantly throw out a QB&#8217;s individual win/loss record in general. To these folks, I guess special teams and the defense just don&#8217;t exist in football. I guess it&#8217;s a one man QB show. Your analysis belongs on ESPN!</p>
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		<title>Comment on Peyton Manning&#8217;s Eight One-And-Done NFL Playoffs: Learn What You Are Criticizing by Wilbur</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/comment-page-1/#comment-490</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wilbur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jan 2013 00:27:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=314#comment-490</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are several points that you clearly have missed. First, that Manning is held to a standard no other QB is. Take last nights game for example. Imagine if Manning had butchered the first half ending drive the way Brady did, and then come out in the second half and scored exactly zero points and threw 2 interceptions in the process. Think all the talk would have been about Welker dropping a pass with 25 minutes left in the game? Secondly, Brady is a better QB now than he was in his three Super Bowl wins. I don&#039;t think anyone will dispute that. Yet, he is a very Manning like 8-8 since those years. How do you explain it? I will do it for you. The TEAMS are not as good. Think those 2003 teams would have given up those drives to Eli? No chance. Brady scored 13 points last night. Yet today, on ESPN Radio and Mad Dog radio, the talk was generally of Welkers drop and Ridleys fumble. Brady for the most part was unscathedthed. I have said and will say it again, Brady is top 5 all time and so is Manning.  But Brady is never, never held to the standard Manning is.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are several points that you clearly have missed. First, that Manning is held to a standard no other QB is. Take last nights game for example. Imagine if Manning had butchered the first half ending drive the way Brady did, and then come out in the second half and scored exactly zero points and threw 2 interceptions in the process. Think all the talk would have been about Welker dropping a pass with 25 minutes left in the game? Secondly, Brady is a better QB now than he was in his three Super Bowl wins. I don&#8217;t think anyone will dispute that. Yet, he is a very Manning like 8-8 since those years. How do you explain it? I will do it for you. The TEAMS are not as good. Think those 2003 teams would have given up those drives to Eli? No chance. Brady scored 13 points last night. Yet today, on ESPN Radio and Mad Dog radio, the talk was generally of Welkers drop and Ridleys fumble. Brady for the most part was unscathedthed. I have said and will say it again, Brady is top 5 all time and so is Manning.  But Brady is never, never held to the standard Manning is.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Peyton Manning&#8217;s Eight One-And-Done NFL Playoffs: Learn What You Are Criticizing by Mukphly</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/comment-page-1/#comment-488</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mukphly]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jan 2013 22:02:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=314#comment-488</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Peyton in his 12 opening round playoff games has gone one &amp; done no less then 8 times (this is not a typo, the # is EIGHT).  Brady has won 3 out of the 5 Super Bowls he has been in.  This means Brady&#039;s Super Bowl winning % &amp; Peyton&#039;s opening round playoff losing percentage are basically identical, so when you say there is not much difference between Brady &amp; Peyton in the playoffs, your analysis is uncannily  accurate.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Peyton in his 12 opening round playoff games has gone one &amp; done no less then 8 times (this is not a typo, the # is EIGHT).  Brady has won 3 out of the 5 Super Bowls he has been in.  This means Brady&#8217;s Super Bowl winning % &amp; Peyton&#8217;s opening round playoff losing percentage are basically identical, so when you say there is not much difference between Brady &amp; Peyton in the playoffs, your analysis is uncannily  accurate.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Peyton Manning&#8217;s Eight One-And-Done NFL Playoffs: Learn What You Are Criticizing by Wilbur</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/comment-page-1/#comment-482</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wilbur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jan 2013 04:03:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=314#comment-482</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tonight Tom Brady played like warm garbage. See if anywhere he gets called out.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tonight Tom Brady played like warm garbage. See if anywhere he gets called out.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Peyton Manning&#8217;s Eight One-And-Done NFL Playoffs: Learn What You Are Criticizing by Wilbur</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/comment-page-1/#comment-479</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wilbur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Jan 2013 01:15:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=314#comment-479</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well said and documented. Brady&#039;s legend is built on those first three years. As I documented earlier, the  best coach of his era, dominant defenses, the greatest clutch kicker in history, and most of all 27 turnovers in those first 10 games. I don&#039;t think anyone doubts Tom Brady of 05 through today is a much better QB than he was in 01-04. Yet he is 8-7 since that 10 game winning streak with no Super Bowls.  Teams win championships. A great QB like Manning or Brady can cover a lot of weaknesses, but it takes 53 guys all on the same page all playing at or near their best in the playoffs. Not absolving Manning of his share of the blame in any of those losses, but when you are on the sidelines and have given your team the lead, and taken the clock down to less than a minute, hard to accept that the QB hasn&#039;t done his job.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well said and documented. Brady&#8217;s legend is built on those first three years. As I documented earlier, the  best coach of his era, dominant defenses, the greatest clutch kicker in history, and most of all 27 turnovers in those first 10 games. I don&#8217;t think anyone doubts Tom Brady of 05 through today is a much better QB than he was in 01-04. Yet he is 8-7 since that 10 game winning streak with no Super Bowls.  Teams win championships. A great QB like Manning or Brady can cover a lot of weaknesses, but it takes 53 guys all on the same page all playing at or near their best in the playoffs. Not absolving Manning of his share of the blame in any of those losses, but when you are on the sidelines and have given your team the lead, and taken the clock down to less than a minute, hard to accept that the QB hasn&#8217;t done his job.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Peyton Manning&#8217;s Eight One-And-Done NFL Playoffs: Learn What You Are Criticizing by scottkacsmar</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/comment-page-1/#comment-478</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[scottkacsmar]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Jan 2013 00:09:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=314#comment-478</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And you&#039;re right that Manning only has 1 GWD in the playoffs (06 AFC-C), which means he has the most in the regular season (48).

But why is that?

Because he&#039;s the only QB to ever have two &quot;lost comebacks&quot; (and GWDs) in playoff history. These are games where he came back to take the lead, but still lost. That would be 07 SD and 10 NYJ. There were two possible GWDs.

The missed FG in OT in Miami. That&#039;s a GWD missed out on becasue a kicker choked on a FG he made in the previous quarter, or one that we&#039;ve seen countless kickers make for their QB. That&#039;s four possible GWDs for Manning.

Five years later Vanderjagt missed the game-tying FG vs. Steelers, which would have forced OT. Maybe Manning wins it there considering Roethlisberger had 25 yards passing in the 2nd half. We&#039;ll never know.

Against SD they lost the lead so late, he had just 0:24 left to work with at his own 19. This is his failed GWD, as he would never get the ball in OT. 30 playoff games have gone to OT, and just six only saw one team touch the ball. 

Last week he leads an 88-yard go ahead TD drive that was no different from the GWDs he&#039;s led for Denver in the regular season. The difference is the defense closed those games, picking off Roethlisberger, Rivers and Dalton. When given the chance to pick off Flacco to end the game, Rahim Moore happened. That was only the 4th time ever a QB threw a TD pass in the 4th quarter with the game tied and still lost.That&#039;s a definite 5th GWD lost for Manning in the playoffs. 

Notice he made the plays for several more GWDs, but other factors on the team prevented these games from ending with a GWD for Manning.

And again, no other QB has this many examples of such things happening to him in the playoffs.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And you&#8217;re right that Manning only has 1 GWD in the playoffs (06 AFC-C), which means he has the most in the regular season (48).</p>
<p>But why is that?</p>
<p>Because he&#8217;s the only QB to ever have two &#8220;lost comebacks&#8221; (and GWDs) in playoff history. These are games where he came back to take the lead, but still lost. That would be 07 SD and 10 NYJ. There were two possible GWDs.</p>
<p>The missed FG in OT in Miami. That&#8217;s a GWD missed out on becasue a kicker choked on a FG he made in the previous quarter, or one that we&#8217;ve seen countless kickers make for their QB. That&#8217;s four possible GWDs for Manning.</p>
<p>Five years later Vanderjagt missed the game-tying FG vs. Steelers, which would have forced OT. Maybe Manning wins it there considering Roethlisberger had 25 yards passing in the 2nd half. We&#8217;ll never know.</p>
<p>Against SD they lost the lead so late, he had just 0:24 left to work with at his own 19. This is his failed GWD, as he would never get the ball in OT. 30 playoff games have gone to OT, and just six only saw one team touch the ball. </p>
<p>Last week he leads an 88-yard go ahead TD drive that was no different from the GWDs he&#8217;s led for Denver in the regular season. The difference is the defense closed those games, picking off Roethlisberger, Rivers and Dalton. When given the chance to pick off Flacco to end the game, Rahim Moore happened. That was only the 4th time ever a QB threw a TD pass in the 4th quarter with the game tied and still lost.That&#8217;s a definite 5th GWD lost for Manning in the playoffs. </p>
<p>Notice he made the plays for several more GWDs, but other factors on the team prevented these games from ending with a GWD for Manning.</p>
<p>And again, no other QB has this many examples of such things happening to him in the playoffs.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Peyton Manning&#8217;s Eight One-And-Done NFL Playoffs: Learn What You Are Criticizing by scottkacsmar</title>
		<link>http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/comment-page-1/#comment-477</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[scottkacsmar]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jan 2013 23:58:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/?p=314#comment-477</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Damon, I think you&#039;ll find it rare for a team to get a TD in that situation the Colts had in Miami. Remember, the defense is out there to win too, and the trailing team knows they absolutely cannot allow a TD in such situations.

Manning went deep to Harrison and it was just out of reach near the end zone. Still, a 7-point lead at that point against a Jay Fiedler offense is supposed to be safe, but the defense blew it. Still, they had the drive in OT to win the game, but Vanderjagt blew the kick. 

While you focus on that 3rd down, I looked at two earlier 3rd downs where the QB made the throw, but the receiver dropped them, losing out on 4 points, and perhaps another score in the 3rd quarter. It&#039;s easier to make a play when the throw is there in the hands versus a play where it wasn&#039;t (3rd and 6). 

2002 Jets - there was never a window of opportunity after Vanderjagt missed that FG. The Colts couldn&#039;t do anything in that game, and I don&#039;t see how Edge getting stuffed on 3rd and 1 is the QB&#039;s fault.

Actually against the 06 Patriots, after the pick 6, he had a 3rd and 23, threw a great pass under pressure, and Marvin Harrison watched it bounce off his hands. It would be the next drive, on a 3rd-and-10 to Wayne, that the comeback started. 

I think you&#039;re being very unrealistic about these windows, when other QBs get away with wins despite not doing those things. How did Brady close in the AFC-C last year after taking the lead? He threw a pick, then threw incomplete on 3rd down. Flacco had his chances, but we know what Evans/Cundiff did at the end.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Damon, I think you&#8217;ll find it rare for a team to get a TD in that situation the Colts had in Miami. Remember, the defense is out there to win too, and the trailing team knows they absolutely cannot allow a TD in such situations.</p>
<p>Manning went deep to Harrison and it was just out of reach near the end zone. Still, a 7-point lead at that point against a Jay Fiedler offense is supposed to be safe, but the defense blew it. Still, they had the drive in OT to win the game, but Vanderjagt blew the kick. </p>
<p>While you focus on that 3rd down, I looked at two earlier 3rd downs where the QB made the throw, but the receiver dropped them, losing out on 4 points, and perhaps another score in the 3rd quarter. It&#8217;s easier to make a play when the throw is there in the hands versus a play where it wasn&#8217;t (3rd and 6). </p>
<p>2002 Jets &#8211; there was never a window of opportunity after Vanderjagt missed that FG. The Colts couldn&#8217;t do anything in that game, and I don&#8217;t see how Edge getting stuffed on 3rd and 1 is the QB&#8217;s fault.</p>
<p>Actually against the 06 Patriots, after the pick 6, he had a 3rd and 23, threw a great pass under pressure, and Marvin Harrison watched it bounce off his hands. It would be the next drive, on a 3rd-and-10 to Wayne, that the comeback started. </p>
<p>I think you&#8217;re being very unrealistic about these windows, when other QBs get away with wins despite not doing those things. How did Brady close in the AFC-C last year after taking the lead? He threw a pick, then threw incomplete on 3rd down. Flacco had his chances, but we know what Evans/Cundiff did at the end.</p>
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