It’s nearly November and most NFL teams are still an inconsistent mess, which makes it hard for predictions, but good for weekly coverage.
This Week’s Articles
Captain Comeback Week 7: Old vs. New, Eli Manning Upstages RGIII - Cold, Hard Football Facts
Random fact: all six quarterbacks to lead a game-winning drive this week are over the age of 30, which hasn’t happened since at least 1995. Yep. Another record for Eli Manning, CBS changes Tom Brady’s stats a week after I pointed out their interesting Week 6 graphic, and a list of Matt Hasselbeck’s game-winning/game-tying TD passes, which oddly slant heavily towards his brief time in Tennessee.
Eli Manning Has New York Giants Soaring Under the Radar Again - Bleacher Report
I rarely write a puff piece, but if I do, it’s going to have a lot of interesting data. This is on Eli Manning and the New York Giants, making note of how they have started 5-2 or better for nine straight seasons, tying the NFL record set by Dallas (1975-83).
I also took a step in the direction of quantifying the difficulty associated with fourth quarter comebacks by looking at Eli Manning’s 23 comeback wins and using win probability. Expect more on this in the future.
Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 7 vs. Cleveland Browns – Colts Authority
Luck had a career-low 35 drop backs this week, but the Colts went into a shell again after taking a 17-13 lead in the third quarter. Find out why Luck needs more shotgun in his diet.
Just What Is Going On With the AFC? – NBC Sports
The 2012 season will be the year we remember the NFC regaining control of the NFL as the dominant conference. NFC teams are 19-9 against the AFC so far this year, and have won three straight Super Bowls. Find out how they’ve swung back control, and a breakdown of all 16 AFC teams into their respectful tiers of quality.
The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Week 8 Predictions – Bleacher Report
This week’s previews include a look at Dick LeBeau’s 14-1 record vs. rookie quarterbacks since 2004, how impressive Andy Reid’s 13-0 record after a bye week really is, Josh Freeman’s lost comeback magic (which he did not need on Thursday), and expecting a career day statistically from Andrew Luck in Tennessee. Also the shortest Broncos/Saints preview out there.
More Scam than Superman: Cam Newton is NFL’s Worst QB in the Clutch – Cold, Hard Football Facts
Cam Newton can at least argue he is consistent, as his stats are very similar to this point last year, as is the 1-5 record. The other constant trend is his inability to close games at a historic rate, producing a 1-12 (.077) record at fourth quarter comeback opportunities. Here are the worst records I have been able to find so far (min. 10 attempts):
You cannot pretend to be Superman if all you ever do in the face of adversity is wilt under the pressure.
2012 NFL Week 8 Predictions
Why is it so hard to trust our gut? I knew Tampa Bay had the on-field advantages, but basically picked Minnesota since they had the better record and were the home team. 0-1 to start the week, which I have a feeling won’t be pretty after going 12-1 last week.
Winners in bold:
- Panthers at Bears
- Chargers at Browns
- Seahawks at Lions
- Jaguars at Packers
- Dolphins at Jets
- Falcons at Eagles
- Redskins at Steelers
- Patriots at Rams
- Colts at Titans
- Raiders at Chiefs
- Giants at Cowboys
- Saints at Broncos
- 49ers at Cardinals
Bah, that’s a lot of road teams. Lions, Eagles and Cardinals win at home, is what my gut says, and I’m not listening again.
- Week 1: 12-4
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 4-12
- Week 4: 10-5
- Week 5: 10-4
- Week 6: 5-9
- Week 7: 12-1
- Season: 64-40